General Advice about Sports Gambling

10 COMMANDMENTS OF SPORTS BETTING
by Badger of Predictem.com

So you want to become a full-fledged member of the billion-dollar-a-year sports gambling industry, only you think you have what it takes to beat the masses? You’re think you're the next Jimmy the Greek?

There are ways to help “even the odds” in your favor.

The truth is there is only one proven way to win consistently (although having lady-luck on your side is also a major plus). You MUST know the sport you are betting on, and you have to pick out the games where the oddsmakers erred in setting the odds.

There’s no magic formula, no computer simulating system, there’s no “insider” secrets. But there are ways to increase your chances so you win more than you lose.

I like to call these the 10 Commandments of Sports Gambling.

1. Do not bet on sports if it affects your health. If you are a hard loser, if you have high blood pressure, a bad ticker, or just can’t let those bad beats go, then this isn’t the game for you because losing is inevitable. Betting on sports is like the stock market ... you’re going to win sometimes, and you WILL lose sometimes. The goal is consistency and longevity. Think marathon; not sprint!

2. If you pass the first commandment, and you really want to win money, then you must approach sports gambling as a job. It cannot be a hobby, and you cannot go about your business half-assed. Each spread (or game) is a business deal that you’ll either do, or you’ll pass on. A knowledgeable businessman should research each deal on it's merits, then decide. Going into a business deal without knowing anything about the teams, terms or circumstances usually results in bad business. Which means you go outta business real quick.

3. Bet the same amount of money on every game you bet. This one will cause a few arguments amongst some bettors, but it’s a common mistake among social or weekend betters. Even if you really like that one game, but only kind of like two other games, bet all three the same. When you put $500 on one, but only $100 on the others you’re only setting yourself up to fall hard. Sure the $500 game might cash in, but how many times has the $500 missed, dropping you into a hole you never recover from. There is no 5-star, 3-star, 1-star ... there is no “system” ... anyone that tells you these things is not a successful gambler unless they have extremely deep pockets to eat a 5- star loss every now and then.

4. Stay away from parlays, teasers, props and other exotic bets like first half/second half bets and the first 5 innings bets unless you are willing to just hand over cash. They are all a bookie’s (or sportsbooks) wet dream. Sure you get paid 10-to-1 if you hit a 4-teamer, but the chances of it happening, consistently, are about the same as your odds of sleeping with Heidi Klum. Instead of one bet on four teams, put your money on the four teams separately. That way when 3-out-of-4 win, you walk away a winner instead of cussing “that damn fourth team!” There’s a reason sportsbooks offer these bets and it’s not because they like to pay you 10-times your bet when they lose. It’s because they ALL put more money in their own pockets. The lure of fast money is too enticing for some people to not realize they’re walking into a trap.

5. Know when to walk away and don’t chase! This is obviously the biggest problem for most gamblers. How many times have you lost on a noon NFL game, dropped into a hole, then made it worse by betting a couple of afternoon games to try and make it up only to take it deeper without lube. Likewise, you win a noon game, then try and double it by betting an afternoon game only to lose and break even. DON’T FALL INTO THIS TRAP. Pick the games you’re going to bet on ahead of time, bet them, then walk away. Don’t compound your problems by trying to double it or win it back by betting on a game you didn’t want to bet on in the first place. Don’t chase by betting on the second half because you already lost the original bet in the first half. This is the hardest rule to follow sometimes because it goes against every gambling fiber in your body. But if you want to win, win consistently, you have to follow it.

6. The walk away rule also applies before the games as well. If you look at the point spreads in the morning and nothing appeals to you, don’t bet. Let’s face it, oddsmakers are good at what they do. Sometimes too good. You must remember that you’re looking for an oddsmaker’s mistakes, but if you have a hard time finding a game you like, take a day off and start fresh tomorrow.

7. Don’t bet on games if the odds have changed too much for your taste. If you like a game that has a spread of 3, only to get to your bookie and find out the odds changed to 4 1/2 ... stay away. It’s no longer the bet you thought it was, and therefore it’s no longer worth betting on. Different betters will give you a different level of variance, but I recommend using a point to point-and-half guideline. But you can determine your own comfort level about how far you’ll let the line move before it becomes a bad bet.

8. This one is called the “Bull Durham” rule after a line in the movie. “Don’t mess with a streak.” If you’re winning, don’t brag aloud to everyone, gloat or do anything to piss off the Betting Gods. Likewise, when you’re losing, don’t cry in your beer or piss and moan. Be like the athletes you’re betting on and try and stay on an even keel. When you win, act like you’ve been there before. When you lose, be mad but determined to do better next time.

9. Since you’re treating this like a job, do what every self-respecting human does whenever possible and take a vacation from betting. Take a week off every now and then to recharge the batteries. If you’re winning, this may go against the previous commandment, but pick and choose the best times of the year to step aside and take a break.

10. The last commandment pisses a lot of bettors off and takes some of the fun out of sports gambling for most, but it’s something you MUST DO to win constantly. DO NOT BET on your favorite team. If you’re honestly going to try and make money, you have to remain unbiased in every way. When you bet on your team, a large percentage of the time your judgment is clouded. Sit back and enjoy their games while looking at the scroll for other scores. If you must, betting on an over/under with said favorite team is a much smarter bet anyway, and easier on the heart and mind.

Following all of these rules will increase your chances at beating the house. If you are an “action junkie” and can’t stay away from parlays and teasers and all of the other traps discussed in this piece, then you will have a hard time following these rules and will find yourself reloading your bankroll more often then you cash out.

The bottom line is that you have to be smart about the plays you make. Be smart, do your homework and have fun and remember that you will not become a millionaire in one night betting on sports. Those are the exact kind of egomaniacs that sportsbooks are hoping to attract.

Best of luck to you!

Agreed. Thank you sir.

Thanks Coast.

Tell that to people down in Florida.

Nope, multiple formations and even some spread.

I mostly agree, but not entirely. I figure out the standard flat amount for each sport/play and stick with that about 90% of the time. But my amounts are not the same for every sport. For example, I play 3% of bankroll on college hoops totals, 2% on golf matchups and 1% on college hoops sides, baseball and all side/totals on football. Any other sport, like NBA or soccer, whatever sports I don't know very well, the amount is so small as to be rooting interest only.

About 10% of the time in college hoops totals and football, I increase a bet but almost never by more than 2x the standard bet for that type of bet. Maybe once a season I might go 3x on something.

So I agree with you thst sometimes the value is enormous and it is worth a bigger play. The trick is how you determine "enormous" value and how often that really occurs. I will work on explaining how I do it.

What's the statute of limitations on agreements with a lord? I once prayed to God that an Anderson brother would kick a field goal on Sunday night football. Somewhere around 2000. He hit it, and a bookie from Danville didn't break my legs. Actually ended up around $42 ahead. I made a silent agreement I'd never bet on an individual NFL game from that point on. I've done confidence pools, etc. But I've never done a single game. Do I keep going?

Kirkwood, Money management is one of the most important things for any gambler. I know most experts recommend a 1% or 2% flat approach and I basically do that too, except I go to 3% for my best sport, college hoops totals, that has proven to be profitable for me after a few decades of betting it every day during the season. I go 2% for my second best sport, golf, and 1% or less for everything else. You have to be able to withstand a long losing streak, because streaks happen. But if you have a solid approach, and you stick with your plan, you will live to play another day. Where many get in trouble is that they bet based on availalble cash flow rather than a fixed bankroll. I know guys who bet $500/game, but then are done by midseason, or they are getting themselves in really deep. Fact is, they maybe had $5,000 total to lose and they lose it in a few weeks. If a guy has $5,000 to risk, he should be betting $50 a game, not $500. If somebody has $500 to lose, they should be betting $5 a game. But then for some guys, they think a $5-$50 bet isn't worth their time and seemingly want the big rush of a big score rather than the grind it out approach of a long term winner. Everybody has to start somewhere, and if you just have $500, then start with $5 bets. Ok, you are only going to win $100 or so in a decent winning year, but next year, you bet a little more. And so on. But that is a discipline that is really hard for guys and thus many bet too much, lose, and never build a lifetime bankroll. They bet from week to week rather than viewing it as a lifetime wealth building strategy. I've been grinding it out for nearly 40 years and had I never started at $10-$20 a game when I was in college in 1975, I wouldn't be where I am today with a decent bankroll betting many times more than that.

If you ascribe to a money management system, then other things become most important. One thing I think many people do badly is play selection...that is, what is your standard to make a play and do you hold yourself to the same standard every day/week? Let's say, for example, that you are a fundamental guy and your standard is to make a play based on line value of 2.5 points or more. What if you reach and make a play on a game that is 1 point off because you crave the action or like the team or suddenly get more confident in a play than your # says you should be? A lot of guys bet every week, even if the quality of the plays they make are quite different. Could you go a week where there are no games that fit your standard and not bet at all that week? And then the next week make 10 plays if that's what your numbers tell you? That's really hard for some guys. They might not have the discipline to make zero plays or the bankroll available to make 10.

Your question about sucker bets and value goes to how you make your lines. I make a line for every game. I highly recommend that whatever method you use (and I will share some of mine over time, including fundamental, situational and technical approaches) you should make a line for every game. Even if it is by your gut, do it. Try this for starters: go through a schedule without looking at lines and make your own lines. Then compare your lines to the opening and closing market lines and most importantly, to the end result. Keep track of how you do...how good are you at making numbers? As you get more confident in your linemaking ability, you then get the confidence to know whether something is a bad line or not. I do not believe in "sucker bets". There are sometimes lines that have a little more value than others, but lines that are "way off" are few and far between. And frankly, when you think a line is way off, or a "sucker bet" I would recommend you figure out what it is you are valuing differently than the linesmaker.

For me, determining EV is a matter of comparing my number vs. the market line. In the NFL, for example, when my number is 2 points or more different than the market line, the play is +EV. In college basketball hoops, I use a 5 point difference to determine EV. I have arrived at these standards to make a play over many years of making lines and validating how I do. Depending on how accurate your own linesmaking proves to be, you will likely have different standards to make a play.

As far as laying big favorites like your -1200 example, every line can be converted to a moneyline. So if you make the line on Denver 2-4 points different than the linesmaker, than the moneyline would also have comparable value. HOWEVER, even when I see +EV on big favorites, you will see me sometimes lay big points at the right number, but never the moneyline. I will take big dogs on the moneyline, but never big favorites. I will go into that some other time...why dogs have more value generally than chalk.

How To Identify "Sharp" Line Moves In The NFL

By Jeff Fogle

How can we tell when a movement in pre-match price is due to 'sharp' money? Today on the blog Jeff Fogle looks at price movements in the NFL, and how we can identify when shrewd bettors have impacted the market.

The sharpest NFL bettors prefer to work in the shadows, because secrecy regarding their strategies, target teams, and target prices is essential for maintaining an edge. But, once they’ve made their bets, the sharps are often announcing to the world who they liked, and at what price.

That’s because certain market moves could only have been caused by sharps!

Here are a few keys for determining when a line move is the result of smart money hitting the market.

#1: Instant Moves Off An Open Line Are Typically Sharp Moves

Because the general public doesn’t actively bet opening lines, immediate moves off an opener must have been triggered by sharp action. Pros are the only bettors waiting to pounce on openers.

So, if a NFL game opens pick-em…then, minutes later, the home team is favored by two points…you can safely assume that was a sharp line move. Professional wagerers jumped in quickly on the home team at pick-em and at -1.

Now, this doesn’t mean that you should jump in on the favorite after you noticed the move. You’re seeing -2, and the line stopped there! That means sharps don’t see value at -2 or they would have kept investing. Were you monitoring the markets at this moment, and happened to notice a “stale” price of pick-em or -1 at a slow-moving book, investment strategy would suggest matching the sharps before the stragglers catch up.

#2: Almost Any Move On An Underdog Is a Sharp Move

Because the public overwhelmingly loves to bet favorites, most moves toward an underdog happen because of sharp betting. There are occasional exceptions to this rule. Peyton Manning gets bet in the rare instances where he’s an underdog (which you saw in the early hours of Super Bowl betting this past February). But, if a team doesn’t have any celebrity cache like that, and is getting market support as an underdog…then it’s sharps who are providing that support.

Squares (industry jargon for less-informed wagerers) bet favorites. If sportsbooks are lowering numbers to beg for action on particular favorites, then you know that sharps are heavy on the opposing underdog.

#3: Moves Away From Key Numbers of 3, 7, And 10 Are Sharp Moves

Because so many NFL victory margins land on the “key” numbers of 3, 7, and 10, it takes a lot of informed money to push the price away from those numbers when they’re up on the board.

In fact, you can assume very strong sentiment coming from professional wagerers whenever an underdog moves away from a key number. Sharps know how valuable those numbers are too! Yet, here they are swimming “upstream” as hard as they can from those percentages and public preferences.

If a dog moves from +2.5 to something lower, or
If a dog moves from +6.5 to something lower, or
If a dog moves from +9.5 to something lower…

That means sharps didn’t even wait to see if the public was going to push the number higher, having anticipated a feeding frenzy from other sharps on that dog.

On the other hand:

If a favorite moves from -3.5 to something higher, or
If a favorite moves from -7.5 to something higher, or
If a favorite moves from -10.5 to something higher…

That could be a mix of sharp and square action. The public likes betting favorites, but does have a fear of “losing by half a point” that can temper their enthusiasm a bit in this situation. Moves away from a key number usually have at least a partial sharp element to them.

#4: Any Big Moves Not Involving A Key Injury Prior to Game Day are Sharp Moves

Because the public doesn’t bet much before game day, any earlier major move that isn’t connected to injury news is coming from sharps. Maybe they didn’t bet the opener because they were waiting for larger limits. Maybe a feeding frenzy started on a sharp side and many other sharps jumped in before the number got away from them.

Whatever. Only sharp sentiment gets the kind of respect that moves lines before game day when injuries aren’t involved. (If a line move can be traced to the announcement that a star quarterback will be unavailable for an upcoming game, then that major adjustment was news-related rather than sharp-related).

#5: Line Moves In The Final Hour Before Kickoff Against the Prior Flow Are Sharp Moves

Because the public tends to get caught up in a bandwagon effect when a line starts moving on game day, any move that slams the breaks on that bandwagon and sends the market the other direction has been caused by professional wagerers coming in at the number they were waiting for.

For example, let’s say that a favorite of -5 in a high profile nationally televised game was bet up to -6 or -7 on game day. A late move back to -5.5 or -5 is announcing very clearly that sharps have jumped in hard on the dog at the apex.

You’ll often hear that sharps are most active against opening numbers when they exploit oddsmaker mistakes and then in the final hour before kickoff when they buy back against public sentiment that has moved a game too far off the mark. This is a good rule of thumb for you to follow when analyzing the market.

Why would knowing sharp sentiment help you as a bettor? If the numbers they were attacking are no longer available, is there even any reason for you to even bother monitoring the market?

The answer is yes, for many reasons:

You may still be able to shadow the sharps at slower-moving sportsbooks.
You will quickly develop a sense of how the sharps have NFL teams power-rated.
You will be better able to anticipate opportunities against next week’s openers.
You will start thinking more like a sharp and less like a square.
And, if you have access to two-team, six-point teasers, you will start to recognize great opportunities by gauging sharp sentiment around the key numbers of three and seven. You’ve probably heard about the overall teaser strategy of moving all underdogs of +1.5, +2, and +2.5 up to +7.5, +8, and +8.5 for use in teasers and doing the same thing in the other direction from -7.5, -8, and -8.5 down to -2.5, -2, and -2.5. Gather up all the qualifiers that cross both the 3 and the 7 in one six-point move…mix and match to your heart’s content…and put the power of key numbers to work for you.

Now by seeing when sharps are betting an underdog at +2.5 or +2 or a favorite at -7.5 or -8, you can invest more heavily in teasers involving those teams. If a dog has value at +2.5, then they’re going to make a lot of sense in a teaser even after a line move at +7.5 or +8 more than two critical numbers away. If sharps were pushing a favorite away from a seven, you’ll want them at less than three in a teaser.

Be sure you monitor NFL line moves very intently this week and beyond, paying particular attention to what happens in the first hour of betting, the last hour of betting and around the key numbers of three and seven.

you might find this interesting...
www.bettingexpert.com/blog/nfl-analytics-wrong

I had the over.