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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 8, 2014 11:54:44 GMT -6
Did my usual guess the line and was only within a point for 5 out of 13 games. So don't have a feel for Vegas yet.
I was way off NE/MIN as I had Minnesota slightly favored. I was right in Vegas' wheelhouse of over reacting to Week 1. I'll need to take a step back and clear my head before deciding whether to move on any of these.
GB -7.5 smells so much. Not touching that one.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 8, 2014 13:50:55 GMT -6
I love this. I see a few games I think were over-reactions to yesterday. Many bettors think that a team is as good or bad as they were last week, so think they are now going to play that way next week.
I'm not sure about that and here are a few examples of the ones that catch my eye:
> If Green Bay were playing the Jets yesterday, the line would have been GB -10. Pack loses badly to the champs, while the Jets win (against the worst team in the league) and the line is 7.5. Public grades Pack down and Jets up. I think 7.5 is a classic line for the favorite. Dog bettors think oh man I get the extra hook! Chalk bettors think, damn I have to lay the hook. But when the number should be 10, as I think it should be, then 7.5 is cheap. No reason to buy it here though because there is almost no difference in the NFL between 7.5 and 9.5. So few games land on 8 or 9 as to make it statistically meaningless to take 8 or 9. If this number drops to 7 or less, I will be on GB.
> Nawlins showed they just aren't quite the same team on the road, while Cleve showed heart. But more to the point, I make this number 3.5, not 6. If Saints lovers take this to 7, I will be on Cleve. I will expect this to close about 4, 4.5.
> The public loves Peyton Manning and after yesterday, Joe Public now thinks the Chief suddenly blow. Maybe they do, but 13? If this game was yesterday, it would have been 9. If Broncos backers take this to 14, I will be on the Chief. I will take 13 if that's the best I can do. I would expect this to close a few points lower.
> Linesmakers can't adjust da Bear too much in one week, I guess, but I make SF -10. As I said last week, I think the # on da Bear is too high and it still is. If I see even a momentary dip to 6.5, I will lay em.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 8, 2014 14:15:25 GMT -6
-Encouraging to see you're on board with my Green Bay surprise. I pegged the line opening at -9.5. I was stunned to be off by 2 points. The Jets offense is NOT good and the Packers offense is out of the hell hole a stadium Century Link. The Jets weakness is their secondary which is unfortunate given Rodgers.
-For Clevelad I was in the ballpark with a +7 guess. Cleveland carries a stigma of failure so I usually add .5-1 points. They've generally been a great team to bet on. I as well will am eyeing Cleveland.
-I had Buffalo as +2.5 home dogs and they're opening as a pick'em. I had strong faith in Miami this year and wasn't surprised by them taking out New England. Buffalo beating Chicago is more of an indictment of Chicago than Buffalo's competence.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 12, 2014 17:05:25 GMT -6
Awful circumstance but I love situations where a star player all of sudden can't play. You get to see how much impact they have on a spread.
Peterson is worth 2.5-3 points as the line has jumped to -6.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 15, 2014 10:07:23 GMT -6
Taking a peek at opening line for week 3 I've already locked in:
Oakland +15 at New England
Yes, Oakland sucks, but giving me two touchdowns? Yes, please, I'll take the points for a unit.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 29, 2014 6:46:13 GMT -6
Getting a better feel of predicting these lines. I was really off on only 3 of them. My initial lean is Baltimore. Gimme dat hook!
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 29, 2014 6:51:58 GMT -6
One of my online books had Packers +10! Placed half my bankroll there on the Pack knowing they'd cancel the wager. Aaaaand sure enough they did. Rats
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 30, 2014 9:06:04 GMT -6
Wooooaaaaaaaahhhhhhh!
Before yesterday's game you could snag NE -3 against Cincy.
Now after yesterday's debacle the line is NE is +1.5!!!
What a swing!
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 30, 2014 9:47:13 GMT -6
I saw value in going against NE, and did with KC, but that value is gone now. A 4.5 point move in one week is probably too much but not for joe public perception that now sees NE in an entirely different light. NE could get waxed again, driving their PR even lower, but at some point there will be value in taking the Pats, especially if they are playing a non-playoff quality team.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Oct 27, 2014 7:03:32 GMT -6
Week 9:
Saints at Panthers -1.5 (Thurs)
Chargers at Dolphins -2.5
Jaguars at Bengals -11.5
Bucs at Browns -6
Redskins at Vikings -2.5
Eagles at Texans +2.5
Jets at Chiefs -9
Cardinals at Dallas -4.5
Rams at 49ers -9.5
Broncos at Patrios -3.5
Raiders at Seahawks -15
Ravens at Steelers -1.5
Colts at Giants +3.5
Early leans are: Jets, Ravens and Giants.
My favorite might be Jets.
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