Beat The Book, 2016-17 Season

Vegas rules apply, except when I make my own.

No bet on the Hall of Fame game, naturally.

Stupid NFL. I had a damn nice bet going too. Got the Colts at +1 and then on Sunday they were 3 point favorites if I'm not mistaken.

Tampa Bay +4 -110 Bookmaker $10

Here's another question. Where do you find the over/unders?

With the start of the Coast’s competition we’ll go to class with Kirkwood on the meaning of -110 (or any vig number)
When you see a line of -4 -110 you are laying $110 to win $100. If your wager wins you receive $100 plus the initial $110 investment. You are earning a return on investment of 100/110 or 90.90% (very good!).
Now the big question is whether the spread or total is worth risking $110 to win $100. The goal of wagering is to risk money where the expected value is positive (you make money!).


When you place a wager you are betting X dollars to win Y dollars with a probability P that you’ll end up victorious. So you can expect to win PY and lose (1-P)X. You break even when PY = (1-P)X


Or in our -110 example, P = 110/(110+100) = 52.38 %


So to have an expected probability of making money you need your bet(s) to have a greater than 52.38% chance of winning.



1. In your case KS, do you believe the Bucs have a greater than 52.38% chance of winning or at least losing by less than 4? If so, make that bet!

2. Do you believe the Bucs have a greater than 49.50% chance of winning or at least losing by less than 3.5? If so, then make that bet!

But how do you know whether the probability is less or greater than the implied odds? That for you to figure out through modeling, your gut or whether your raccoon gives you a thumbs up. 

CHI PK -106 $10 Pinnacle

Thanks Coast.

I figured so. Otherwise you'd be like headless chicken running around verifying book lines, half lines, quarter lines, etc.

I'm the best of the ones who played!

Patience

A few tips to navigate sbrodds.com

When you first go to the page, you will see the lines for just that day. But you will also see three pull down menus on the left hand side, just above the lines. They will say "Today" "Sides" and "Full". Each of these three pull down menus will get you to where you want to go quickly.

First, for the menu on the left that says "today", click on it and you can choose between any sport. Click on "NFL" or "College Football" and you will get all the lines for the week for that sport you chose.

The second pull down menu is for sides, totals, or sides and totals. The choices you have are "Point Spreads and Moneylines", "Point Spreads", "Moneylines", "Totals" and "Spreads and Totals". Because our contest is only for spreads and totals, choose the last choice to see spreads and totals on the same screen for every game.

The third column will say "Full". That means you are looking at the full game bets. You won't ever change this except if you want to bet a 1st half or 2nd half when those bets are offered. You change that to see the first half lines before a game starts and you can check that 5 or so minutes after halftime begins for the 2nd half lines.

Hope this helps.

Sure as long as he meets the requirements of posting at least a few times/month in other parts of the board this month and going forward.

Piglet has posted in the Brewers thread and the SummerSlam thread this month. He's good in my book but it's not my book.