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Post by denisdman on Jan 29, 2018 12:08:34 GMT -6
The day has finally come. My youngest turns 16 today. We are finally done with driving the kids all over the place. Their school does not have bus service, so that has always been a burden. But sports and nights out with friends are the bigger drag on our time.
Speaking of sports, I am quite excited for the upcoming baseball season. His freshmen year was a bit derailed by arthroscopic surgery to remove bones chips in his knee. He was able to play some summer ball, but he had been away from the game for too long by the time summer rolled around. He looks poised to be hitting mid-80's on the radar gun, and our pitch trax equipment show him hitting the ball over 350 feet.
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Post by denisdman on Jan 30, 2018 7:49:01 GMT -6
I'll probably avoid the State of the Union address. I love politics and follow it on PBS and the Sunday Morning Talk Shows. But if the politicians wanted to make America disinterested, they have done a fine job with me. It is tough to stomach the garbage going on especially at the Federal level.
I think there's a Hawks game, so I'll torture myself with that.
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Post by Positivity Peeps on Jan 30, 2018 7:51:43 GMT -6
I'll probably avoid the State of the Union address. I love politics and follow it on PBS and the Sunday Morning Talk Shows. But if the politicians wanted to make America disinterested, they have done a fine job with me. It is tough to stomach the garbage going on especially at the Federal level. I think there's a Hawks game, so I'll torture myself with that. Couldn't agree more. Though I can't stomach the Sunday Morning shows either. |
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Post by denisdman on Jan 30, 2018 8:04:59 GMT -6
There's a touch more meat to those shows than the panels that appear on CNN. Of course, it's all spin doctoring, but there are quality guests on those shows. I just don't know where to go to get my news. I can't watch Fox or MSNBC, and CNN is low quality now too. The PBS News Hour and Chicago Tonight are high quality, and I enjoy those shows. I also read the WSJ. I still have a thirst for what is going on, and it has been tough to quench with this tabloid styled media.
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Post by denisdman on Jan 30, 2018 13:51:03 GMT -6
I normally don't give B&G a listen until my way home at 4:30 in the car. But today I decided I wanted to get their take on some MSU stuff given that there had been a ton of chatter earlier in the day on several talk radio programs.
So I tune in just now, and they are doing the Indians stuff. Now much like their take on the Anthem protests, they continue to be surprised that people get upset that players kneel (anthem) or are the removal of the logo (Indians). Now regardless of which side you are on in each debate, it's not like there is only one side to this. I am really quite sick of both sides acting like the other is not entitled to their opinion on the matter.
They continue to question and make light of all the people on the other side of the issues. To Goff, it's blatantly racist. I dunno maybe. It's very true that a lot of whites don't see racism in things that afflicted groups so often do. And it's even less of a leap for folks to be upset about people kneeling during the anthem. It breaks long "standing" tradition. My opinion- on the Indians thing, it's probably the right move, and I don't have a strong opinion on it either way. On the ovation thing, I view kneeling as a perfectly acceptable form of protest and free speech. But I think it does the cause a disservice because it turns so many people against you in the process.
Oh well.
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Post by November KS on Jan 30, 2018 13:52:42 GMT -6
I agree with all of that.
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Post by denisdman on Jan 30, 2018 13:58:00 GMT -6
I just get upset with all these red lines. We need more understanding of the other side, not the constant name calling and labels. I love to see intelligent arguments that counter my own opinions. At an absolute minimum, it allows me to sharpen my argument. In certain cases, I have completely changed my mind including on supporting same sex marriage and not letting my son play tackle football anymore. Despite having strong convictions, I try to remain pragmatic and open minded.
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Post by denisdman on Jan 30, 2018 14:38:22 GMT -6
Oh god, this is bringing back bad memories. Why am I doing this to myself?
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Post by November KS on Jan 30, 2018 14:52:47 GMT -6
As far as tonight goes, I just can't watch it. I can't stand looking at Trump's face. Or listening to his voice as he spouts lie after lie. I have a ton of stuff to do around the house but if I decide to watch anything on TV at that time it would be my recorded episodes of American Pickers.
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Post by Positivity Peeps on Jan 30, 2018 15:10:33 GMT -6
I will say that not every instance requires us to give credence to both sides of an issue.
But I agree with your larger point. Politics as sport has ruined America.
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Post by Positivity Peeps on Jan 30, 2018 15:11:12 GMT -6
As far as tonight goes, I just can't watch it. I can't stand looking at Trump's face. Or listening to his voice as he spouts lie after lie. I have a ton of stuff to do around the house but if I decide to watch anything on TV at that time it would be my recorded episodes of American Pickers. Smackdown will be on at that time. |
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Post by November KS on Jan 30, 2018 15:12:12 GMT -6
As far as tonight goes, I just can't watch it. I can't stand looking at Trump's face. Or listening to his voice as he spouts lie after lie. I have a ton of stuff to do around the house but if I decide to watch anything on TV at that time it would be my recorded episodes of American Pickers. Smackdown will be on at that time. Good call!! |
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Optimisn
Moderator
The Voice of Reason
Posts: 33,710 
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Post by Optimisn on Jan 30, 2018 19:20:53 GMT -6
I'll probably avoid the State of the Union address. I love politics and follow it on PBS and the Sunday Morning Talk Shows. But if the politicians wanted to make America disinterested, they have done a fine job with me. It is tough to stomach the garbage going on especially at the Federal level. I think there's a Hawks game, so I'll torture myself with that. I feel like I'm being somewhat hypocritical, but I can't do the State of the Union either. I already have trouble with the way "adults" act in the room with a President I respect. Seeing the MSNBC All-Stars pouting at everything a lying, morally bankrupt President says is not what I need tonight. |
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Post by denisdman on Jan 30, 2018 20:10:58 GMT -6
We’re all exhausted with the state of the media, the gridlock and the orange leader.
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Post by denisdman on Feb 2, 2018 15:51:27 GMT -6
I don’t know what to make of the memo.
I generally think secret courts are just a bad idea. I suspect the spies just violate the law anyway when they want to snoop. I am so jaded about government.
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Post by denisdman on Feb 2, 2018 19:15:52 GMT -6
In a break from my mostly worthless thoughts, I figured I should chime in on something in my wheelhouse. The market had a rough week. It appears that rising interest rate expectations have finally spooked some people. There is also chatter about crypto currency fraud and manipulation. All that aside, equity values are at wholly unsustainable levels. And it’s easy to convince ones self to jump on the train. We have global growth, a better corporate tax regime, loosening regulation, attractive commodity prices, low unemployment, and really no evident risks to the system. But, it’s about valuations. There is still a price where things are too expensive even though times are good.
I don’t think this is the beginning of the end. I bet the market shakes this off and starts hitting new highs. I am not sure how or when this bubble bursts. It’s not ready to burst.
I took my trading positions off the table in December. Missed a big piece of the Kohl’s rally, which was my screaming buy of the year on the other board. All of my long term money remains passively invested in equities.
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Optimisn
Moderator
The Voice of Reason
Posts: 33,710
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Post by Optimisn on Feb 2, 2018 19:22:18 GMT -6
I also don't predict a repeat of 2008, but this isn't sustainable. I'd rather miss on a one point gain as opposed to losing on an eight point loss.
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Post by denisdman on Feb 2, 2018 19:39:53 GMT -6
Exactly, the trajectory is non sustainable, and the current valuations aren’t supported by cash flows. The market will either have to go sideways to grow into the valuations or correct to more rational levels.
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Post by Positivity Peeps on Feb 3, 2018 8:47:24 GMT -6
I don’t know what to make of the memo. I generally think secret courts are just a bad idea. I suspect the spies just violate the law anyway when they want to snoop. I am so jaded about government. Yep. Though I'm more annoyed by the typical coverage and rhetoric used. Again sticking to my politics as sport theme, I've seen both sides say this is a home run for them. My biggest takeaway was that it shows how easy it is for governmet agencies to get warrants from the FISA court. |
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Post by denisdman on Feb 3, 2018 12:31:34 GMT -6
I’ve seen the complaints about the slow moving free agent market. In past baseball labor negotiations, the union reps have argued that no salary cap is needed. Their rationale was that owners just have to show restraint. But now that the owners do, and after getting burned time and again with long, bad, guaranteed contracts, the agents are pissed.
If the restraint is the product of collusion, then the owners should be skewered and penalized. Short of that, I applaud them keeping contract offers shorter and more reasonable. Arrieta can barely throw 90 anymore, so why give him five years?
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Post by denisdman on Feb 3, 2018 12:33:19 GMT -6
The Libertarian in me hates the FISA court because there is no advocate for the accused. And the proceeding and evidence are secret. It is really hard for me to see the government machine as anything but trampling over due process rights.
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Post by denisdman on Feb 3, 2018 13:52:54 GMT -6
I just finished reading through Sears’ most recent regulatory filings. I don’t see how they make it through the year. Normally retailers go down when vendors stop shipping product. I keep wondering what Lampert’s end game is with Sears.
At the end of January, they entered into another debt agreement. They are paying Libor plus 12.5%. That says it all.
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Post by denisdman on Feb 5, 2018 10:01:56 GMT -6
I always take the Monday after the Super Bowl off. So I am playing League of Legends. I swear I am the worst player on earth. These kids just waste me....
Great game BTW. Very entertaining.
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Post by denisdman on Feb 5, 2018 15:18:42 GMT -6
In a break from my mostly worthless thoughts, I figured I should chime in on something in my wheelhouse. The market had a rough week. It appears that rising interest rate expectations have finally spooked some people. There is also chatter about crypto currency fraud and manipulation. All that aside, equity values are at wholly unsustainable levels. And it’s easy to convince ones self to jump on the train. We have global growth, a better corporate tax regime, loosening regulation, attractive commodity prices, low unemployment, and really no evident risks to the system. But, it’s about valuations. There is still a price where things are too expensive even though times are good. I don’t think this is the beginning of the end. I bet the market shakes this off and starts hitting new highs. I am not sure how or when this bubble bursts. It’s not ready to burst. I took my trading positions off the table in December. Missed a big piece of the Kohl’s rally, which was my screaming buy of the year on the other board. All of my long term money remains passively invested in equities. Well I still believe the market shrugs this off. But hot damn am I glad I loaded up on cash before Xmas. Timing the market is impossible, but it sure is nice to have dry powder to pick through the wreckage. |
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Post by Positivity Peeps on Feb 5, 2018 15:34:04 GMT -6
Thanks Obama!
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Optimisn
Moderator
The Voice of Reason
Posts: 33,710
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Post by Optimisn on Feb 5, 2018 15:45:32 GMT -6
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Post by denisdman on Feb 5, 2018 15:54:21 GMT -6
Yeah the 401(k) hurts most in the short term. 2008/2009 made me shake my head but not my resolve. Luckily, I went cash in my trading accounts, and all the kids college money is in age indexed portfolios, which means largely fixed income given their ages.
But the math is pretty simple with equity indexed 401(k) money, market down 5% 401(k) down 5%. But that means dollar cost averaging at lower prices
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Post by denisdman on Feb 7, 2018 10:58:24 GMT -6
The market's rapid rebound is not really a surprise. I didn't think the current valuation bubble was ready to end. There's just too many positive factors going on, namely global growth, tax cuts, and low unemployment, for the party to end right now.
At some point, valuations will be the reason for the a significant market pullback. Ultimately, it will be caused by rising bond yields, which make fixed income investments more attractive than stocks. But right now, I am sure you like everyone is asking, where do I put my money to earn an inflation adjusted (real) return?
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Post by denisdman on Feb 7, 2018 11:45:57 GMT -6
This proposed budget deal, while a spending slush fund, is at least a first step toward Congress taking responsibility for its core duty. It is also nice to see some bipartisan agreement among the Senate leaders. I hope Trump doesn't muck this thing up
I am way past the day where I sit around and worry about deficits. This country has very little sense of fiscal responsibility, and our fine state is a prime example. I just wonder if/when the day of reckoning will ever come.
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Post by denisdman on Feb 8, 2018 14:15:29 GMT -6
My employer is letting us work from home tomorrow. The staff had already decided we were taking PTO days if they didn't. It just looks like one of those storms that would result in a dangerous commute, possibly both in the morning and on the way home. Luckily, we use laptops that can be plugged in anywhere rather than traditional desktops. I just log in via my iMac to get the large screen view. It'll sure be nice to have Friday at home and not have to deal with the slippery roads.
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