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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 20, 2014 22:18:38 GMT -6
Through one week of hoops: -0.2 units
Dogs 2-1, +0.9
Favorites 1-1, -1.2
Sides: 3-2, -0.3
Unders 1-2-1, -1.2
Overs 2-1-1, +0.9
Totals: 3-3-2 -0.3
Parlays 1-2 +0.4
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 21, 2014 10:08:11 GMT -6
A lot of good games today and several teams I think will cover but I'm still not real confident about my numbers for a lot of teams. My top two today are New Mexico and Miami. But because of my uncertainty about precise power ratings for New Mexico and Akron, and how New Mexico, in particular, is going to perform with their bigs, I'm more comfortable with them winning outright and putting them in a money line parlay. One thing is certain, I lost going against George Mason once, but I'm not gun shy about going against them again. And I love what Larranaga is doing at Miami. I'm betting on him with Miami and against the George Mason team he left.
Miami U and New Mexico, Money line parlay, Risking 2 units to win 1.32
I might have a total or two later once they are all up.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 21, 2014 12:09:31 GMT -6
One total for Friday. Late night snack in the PAC.
Oral Roberts - Oregon State under 134.5. 2 units.
Oral vs. Beaver. Now there is an interesting matchup with possibilities for a Friday night.
Oral is moral, but they are also very slow. Last year, ORU was 268 in the nation in pace. And already this year, they played a 62 possession grinder vs. Mizzou. Same coach, many of the same players, same style -- grindy. Oregon State is coached by former Montana coach Wayne Tinkle and he is putting in his grindy system too, replacing whatever it was they ran under former Coach Craig Robinson. (One day the Beavers would be uptempo, the next they would play Princeton offense). Montana was always in the bottom tier of teams for pace, and I expect this OSU team to be there too. And when they are, the totals against teams like ORU are likely to be 10 points lower than this.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 22, 2014 7:21:49 GMT -6
That one played out as desired!
Somebody asked me why so many moneyline parlays? College hoops has more random endings than any other sport. The % of spread bets affected by fouls at the end of a game is ridiculously high. If I really like a team to win, taking them on the moneyline is a way to reduce the risk of randomness at the end. But betting single teams in straight moneyline bets would skew the relative $$ relationship for wins and losses between those bets and all others I make. Putting a few together in a parlay more closely matches the relative bet amounts and payouts.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 22, 2014 9:50:46 GMT -6
One so far for Saturday:
Lamar-Indiana over 146.5, 1 u
A nice rent-a-victim win for Crean and the Hoosiers. Pat Knight isn't at Lamar any more but Tic Price is, and his McNeese State teams were always one of the highest-paced teams in the nation. This Lamar team is bad defensively so I expect IU to run, gun and pile up the points in a game I expect to have about 75 possessions each. Look for IU to hit close to 90 in this one. The question for this total will be how many points Lamar gets. Hopefully they can get to 65 to remove any doubt.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 22, 2014 10:15:42 GMT -6
One moneyline parlay for Saturday:
Duke, Kent State, LSU 1 unit to win .78
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 23, 2014 8:48:44 GMT -6
Sunday hoops:
Creighton North Carolina Central OVER 135.5
Dougie Buckets isn't in Omaha any more, but the Blue are still playing the same way -- quick, efficient and not great on the defensive end. Based on how they played vs. North Carolina, I expect NC Central to pretty much play at almost the same pace as Creighton.
...there may be more..
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 23, 2014 9:38:15 GMT -6
Sunday in Paradise Jam, Virgin Islands
Gardner Webb +7 vs. Seton Hall, 1u
Looks like GW is back to where it was several years ago when it beat Kentucky. The Websters took LSU to the wire in Red Stick (aka Baton Rouge),won at Charleston and in this tourney, they beat Clemson. Hall has beaten Mercer and Nevada, but today they play a GW team that likes to get out and run. Hall can do that, but one thing from watching Hall is that when they play teams like this, they have a tendency to get careless and make a lot of TOs. So while I'm tempted to take over in this game, I think GW is the better play.
Sunday Parlay, 1 unit pays .86 Miami (vs. Charleston) So. Illinois (vs. UIC) Going back to the well again with Miami Florida and fading UIC. And I will continue to play on Miami and against UIC while my numbers say there is still value.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 23, 2014 10:40:58 GMT -6
One more:
Northern Arizona-Ole Miss over 132.5
Ole Miss doesn't have the talent it has had in recent years, but they still play the same fast pace. The Lumberjacks will go with them and play at about the same place and are not great defensively, giving up 90 to Xavier and nearly 50% shooting to Toledo.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 24, 2014 7:10:25 GMT -6
10 days into the season and still treading pretty lightly, up 4.56 units. (Sides -1.4, Totals +2.6, Parlays +3.36)
Monday:
Georgia Southern -4 vs. Florida International, 2 units
Georgia Southern was undervalued against Illinois as 23 point dogs; I took them there and it was never in doubt. They are undervalued here too by my numbers. GS is a pretty experienced team while FIU has 4 new starters, including their entire front line who did most of the scoring last year. This line says these teams are even on a neutral floor with 4 for GS home court. I make this number 5 on a neutral floor, and I use 4.5 for HCA, so I would make this line 9.5.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 24, 2014 9:09:01 GMT -6
Eastern Washington Indiana over 146, 1u
Back to the well with Hoosiers over. E Wash loves to play fast (>70 possesions/game last year) and should score as many or more than Lamar did the other night. EW might also keep this close and has a shot to win this game. And wouldn't that light the Hoosier fans on fire!
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 25, 2014 4:55:14 GMT -6
Greetings from Punta Cana where the sand is white, the rum is brown, the water is clear and the women aren't wearing much at all. Even here I can hear the unrest in Bloomington and another shovel of red dirt being thrown on Messiah Crean. Maybe Crean's guru Joyce Meyer can give him another prayer to recite to soothe the masses. It's always worked so well for him before.
Why is it when I have these great feelings of possible upsets with a double digit dog, I can suggest it, but don't bet it Ah well, we bag the 2-0 night and move on.
Warning: All plays the rest of the week may be rum-induced. And no, I don't need Kesha to run down the beer bars for me in PC. Looks like a lot of Presidente. And I'm probably going to try Mamajuana sometime. It is a local "specialty" but seems like one of the strangest concoctions I've ever heard of. Rum, red wine and honey fermented together with bark and herbs and legend has it, some kind of special rocks. One local brand even claims to include sea tortoise penis. So it's got that going for it. Which is nice. I hear it was invented as a medicine and tastes kind of like port wine. Seems to me something like that has only one purpose. Or maybe two. I probably will be in the hotel bar and not far from a bano when I take that first shot.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 25, 2014 10:24:18 GMT -6
Two for Tuesday
One 2 unit ML parlay:
Arizona, Toledo and Villanova: 2 units to win 2.08
Oregon - VCU over 152, 1 unit
Both teans had bad games yesterday. Getting out and playing street ball today against a willing opponent should get them going.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 25, 2014 20:38:27 GMT -6
Sorry about the 0-2 night guys. Detroit had their best shooting night of the season to lose the parlay, and VCU -Oregon had 154 possessions --which if you told me that before the game, I would have put odds of winning the over at 90% -- but they had 40 turnovers...20 each. How in the hell do you handicap that? Yeah that was street ball all right.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 26, 2014 7:22:46 GMT -6
One so far for whatever day this is.
Portland State +7.5 @ Northridge. Two pretty similar teams that play fast and not a lot of defense. If a total is posted later, I will take over anything less than 155. While Northridge is at home, it is not much of an advantage. I make this game a toss up.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 26, 2014 8:42:10 GMT -6
UCLA Oklahoma over 152.5, 2u
2 units is usually my standard bet in hoops and I am beginning to work toward that for more plays as I get more sure of my #s. . I will have occasional 3 u plays. These two teams play fast and their O appears to be ahead of their D --which is not unusual for Nov.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 26, 2014 9:06:37 GMT -6
West Virginia -20.5 vs VMI
Very rare I make a bet like this, but VMI is a rare team that shoots very quick (usually in top 2 of nation) and is horrible defensively (currently in the bottom 5 nationally at #347, and they have not played anybody in the top 200). They already gave up 110 to Wilmington, a team I have 14 points below WVU. Huggie might get 120 here. Hopefully they will be up 30+ when he empties the bench.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 27, 2014 8:22:31 GMT -6
2-1 yesterday but lost juice as ucla and okla played fast enough to go over, but not going to win many overs when both teams shoot in the 30s.
one afternoon ML parlay: georgia tech / xavier 1u to win 0.73
Probably will have others once the Atlantis lines are up
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 27, 2014 9:41:54 GMT -6
one total...
ucla-norcar over 153.5
With these teams now acclimated to the strange "gym" (hotel ballroom with low ceiling) maybe the shooting will be better today.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 27, 2014 15:13:58 GMT -6
a few more totals to go with your tryptophan nap.
the beach (long beach-west mich) over 142
marquette ga tech under 130
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 28, 2014 19:02:50 GMT -6
Gone all day scuba diving so didn't make any plays today. Probably a good thing considering how cold I've been. And if you tailed me yesterday and went o fer, you probably wished I had been gone yesterday. One for tonight:
North Dakota-Utah over 133. Utah is playing fast this year and North Dakota is above average pace also and based on the one game I saw of them so far, they can score. This one probably will be an easy Utah win/blowout, which hopefully will work to make the game even faster paced.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 28, 2014 19:21:44 GMT -6
ML Parlay for Friday night
Western Michigan - Murray State ML Par 1 unit to win 1.08
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Post by Coast2Coast on Dec 6, 2014 9:43:17 GMT -6
Took several days off to re-jigger my numbers and models. Seems my totals were missing badly (ya think? -5.6 units on totals last week), especially that run of overs over the holiday weekend last week. The variance of teams playing similar opponents was significant, but I guess not surprising in retrospect. Early season, so many teams play a few cupcakes and then struggle to score against real opponents. UCLA and North Carolina are classic examples. Play fast but badly. This will not be a good year for Alford or Roy Williams. Shed a tear. or not.
Hoops season on the thread thus far:
Minus 0.04 units (After a streak of bad over picks last week, lucky to be down only four one-hundredths of a unit).
Sides +2.6 u
Totals -3.0 u
Parlays +0.36
A Saturday afternoon total:
This will be a two unit play with 1 unit on the first half under and 1 unit on the game total. When I bet unders, I always consider first half plays to avoid the end game random foul fests that kill unders. And I like this play as a 2 unit play so will split the first half and game at a unit each.
NC State - wake Forest under 136, 1 unit.
Why is there an ACC game in early December. Conference games bring a whole different vibe. Teams know each other. Can't expect Danny manning's Wake boys to play as fast as they would like against Gottfried's boys. Defense will be more intense than it is in the holiday and preseason games.
When the first half lines come out in a few hours, barring any moves, it should be about 64 or 63.5. I will take 1 unit under first half also, unless it drops below 63.
Also a late night bay area parlay.
Santa Clara ML + St. Mary's ML 1 to win 1.11
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Post by Coast2Coast on Dec 6, 2014 10:26:53 GMT -6
Got under 63.5 on Wake-NCS first half under. Looks like one of the big boys has the same idea, as number now at 134. Always good to be ahead of a move.
Another one:
Xavier-Alabama under 151.5, 1 unit
Here is another game I expect to have some defensive intensity. Sure X plays fast and is very efficient, but a decent Bama defense that likes to control tempo might be successful enough at both to keep this grindy.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Dec 7, 2014 11:18:05 GMT -6
Well we see why first half unders can be better plays than full game unders. Wake, down 12, started fouling with over 3 minutes left. And the X game was like four different teams --the two in the first half and 2 NBA teams in the 2H.
Eastern Kentucky +14.5, first half at Kentucky.
The Cats come off a big game vs Texas just Friday night and coming out a bit flat would not surprise. UK has started a few games slow. EKU went to the NCAAs last year. They have two veteran guys who can play and this is a big game for them. They want to hang around and keep it close as long as possible.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Dec 12, 2014 17:37:17 GMT -6
It's been a busy week, and haven't had a chance to study the lines, but have to play this one tonight:
Iowa State +6 @ Iowa (line is 5.5 most places, some 6s out there, so +6, -120 ok too) 2**
I have Iowa State as the slightly better team. 4 points better to be exact. So with home court in Iowa City worth 4-5 points, this game should be pick or -1 at most. I may be wrong about my numbers, but I keep them and they mostly serve me well. Or they have so far this year (for sides anyway). I take value as I find it. So why is Iowa favored? Are the books right and me wrong? Or are the books playing to the public perception that Iowa MUST be pretty good because they beat North Carolina at North Carolina. Yes, but I don't think that win will look nearly as impressive in March when North Carolina is .500 or maybe just a few games better than that in the ACC.
I also lean over as I make the number 150 (line is 142). But with the way I've been on totals, especially overs, so far this year, I'm going to ride with just the side tonight.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Dec 13, 2014 11:01:14 GMT -6
One for the afternoon:
St Mary Creighton over 141.5, 1*
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Post by Coast2Coast on Dec 20, 2014 7:52:08 GMT -6
Let's see if I can get on track with totals.
SMU Michigan under 129.5. 2**
Texas AM Kansas State under 131. 2**
Oklahoma Washington over 140. 2**
Oregon Delaware St over 143.5 1*
Long Beach St +15 @ Texas. 1*
YTD -3.74u
Sides +3.5 u
Totals -6.6 u
Parlays -0.64 u
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Post by Coast2Coast on Dec 20, 2014 10:22:22 GMT -6
The more I look at North Carolina-Ohio St, the more I like the Buckeyes. I make it OSU -3, so not much value, but when you consider Matta is a coach to back, while Roy is not, it is a play for me. So a straight bet on Ohio St is fine, but instead, there are two others I am pairing OSU with in a ML parlay for a bit more.
ML Parlay
Villanova, Illinois, Ohio St 1 unit to win 1.56
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Post by Coast2Coast on Dec 20, 2014 10:46:16 GMT -6
Line popped to 4, so I am buying.
Northern Iowa +4 vs Iowa (neutral site, Des Moines) 2**
Went against Iowa vs ISU and doing it again. It seems the oddsmakers raised Iowa after they beat NC. What they should have done is lower NC more. I make this UNI -1, so I will take the value.
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