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Post by Coast2Coast on Dec 22, 2014 9:08:12 GMT -6
Monday A couple of really bad beats on totals Saturday. If you played them and followed them, you feel the pain.
California +9, -120 vs. Wisconsin, 2** Too many points, especially considering the situation...Badgers have been off 9 days for finals, playing their first true road game. Not saying they will be flat, but the history suggests many teams are off their games in this spot. On a pure power rating basis, I have Wis 10 over Cal, with 4.5 home court and - for the spot, 4 seems like the right number to me.
YTD -3.14 Sides +6.5 u Totals -8.0 u Parlays -1.64 u
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Post by Hawg Ass on Dec 22, 2014 21:54:43 GMT -6
Monday A couple of really bad beats on totals Saturday. If you played them and followed them, you feel the pain. California +9, -120 vs. Wisconsin, 2** Too many points, especially considering the situation...Badgers have been off 9 days for finals, playing their first true road game. Not saying they will be flat, but the history suggests many teams are off their games in this spot. On a pure power rating basis, I have Wis 10 over Cal, with 4.5 home court and - for the spot, 4 seems like the right number to me. YTD -3.14 Sides +6.5 u Totals -8.0 u Parlays -1.64 u Wisconsin was very impressive tonight.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Dec 23, 2014 18:20:05 GMT -6
Yes Wisconsin was impressive. And as good as they played, they only covered by 3. Oh well, it's a loser any way you slice it.
Last night Loyola won in Vegas vs. Texas Tech by 18, in a game in which Texas Tech was 0-21 from trey. Tech shot 58% on their two pointers, so you wonder why Tubby didn't tell them to stop shooting the trey. At any rate, it was impressive for Loyola, and as a result, tonight's line is Boise -3.5 vs. Loyola. I make this line 6. Boise is a team with an upside much higher than Loyola's. It's not enough to make a value play on Boise, but I will parlay them with Texas, who has Stanford tonight.
ML Parlay: Boise ML + Texas ML 1 unit pays .82
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Post by Coast2Coast on Dec 27, 2014 11:01:26 GMT -6
Saturday, 12-27 Louisville +6 vs Kentucky,1 unit This line says Kentucky is 10.5 points better than Ville. Not in my world. Should be a great game that goes to the wire. I will take the more experienced and better defensive team at home.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Dec 31, 2014 15:08:02 GMT -6
With conference season starting, looking at first half and game unders. Prefer first halves because of the foul fests that can occur in close games. Conference games lead to a bias to unders because the teams know each other so well, know their stuff and most teams are more deliberate offensively attacking the defense.
Indiana-Nebraska under 64.5, 1st half Both games last year went well under the game totals and Nebraska is a team that seems to prepare for IU very well, as evidenced by Nebraska sweeping IU last year.
Moneyline parlay: Nebraska and Wyoming 1 unit to win 1.04 Two of the coaches I will be fading this season are Crean and UNLV's Dave Rice. Today they both are on the road against good defensive teams that will control pace...two things that seem to give both IU and UNLV trouble.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Jan 10, 2015 11:25:00 GMT -6
After a rough start, particularly with totals, I have not been playing. Interesting that the best hoops handicapper service is down 20 units. In my opinion (don't have the time to do extensive stat crunching) many teams are showing much wider than usual varince in game-to-game performance. While high variance can be good (if you can predict it), the variance is taking many forms. So I am still treading carefully,looking at teams whose consistency warrants trusting their number.
Louisville +145 @ North Carolina, 1 unit You can take the 3-1/2 if you like,but I am going out on a limb and saying I won't need em.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Mar 3, 2015 17:52:42 GMT -6
It's March Go time. Iowa-Indiana over 67.5, 1st half 1u Iowa-Indiana over144, 1u
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Post by Coast2Coast on Mar 17, 2015 16:04:54 GMT -6
Ok it has been a bad season...down 8.5 units here and awol because I am not giving out picks when I suck. But this week is special. Hope I am seeing these right:
Best Bet: Iowa Davidson over 146, 3 u ML Parlay: BYU - NC State +176. 2u Underdog: Harvard +11, 1u
Tonight: Hampton -Manhattan under 65.5, 1st half, 1u Will early nerves beget bricks?
More later
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Post by Hawg Ass on Mar 17, 2015 19:25:37 GMT -6
Coast, any thoughts on the overall tournament?
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Post by Coast2Coast on Apr 4, 2015 10:41:23 GMT -6
Sorry I have been....out.
Final Four bets
Badgers baby. It is Bo's time.
Wisconsin +5.5 2 u Wisconsin over 60.5 1st half, 2 u Wisconsin over 131, 2u
Duke ML -Kentucky ML par 2u to win 1.96 Duke ML -Wis ML par 2u to win 6.32 Setting up a big payoff for a Wis win. Obviously need Duke to win 1st game..If Duke loses, out 4 u. Then, with 2 units on both Ky and Wis, I will be risking .04 units to win 5.32 on Wisconsin outright...ergo if Duke wins, I have a 133-1 ticket on Wisconsin.
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All Drop In
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The Voice of Reason
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Post by All Drop In on Apr 4, 2015 11:26:42 GMT -6
Sorry I have been....out. Final Four bets Badgers baby. It is Bo's time. Wisconsin +5.5 2 u Wisconsin over 60.5 1st half, 2 u Wisconsin over 131, 2u Duke ML -Kentucky ML par 2u to win 1.96 Duke ML -Wis ML par 2u to win 6.32 Setting up a big payoff for a Wis win. Obviously need Duke to win 1st game..If Duke loses, out 4 u. Then, with 2 units on both Ky and Wis, I will be risking .04 units to win 5.32 on Wisconsin outright...ergo if Duke wins, I have a 133-1 ticket on Wisconsin. Coast! Hope all is well.
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jackref
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Sweet Carolina So Good So Good So Good
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Post by jackref on Apr 4, 2015 15:57:09 GMT -6
I like those plays Coast. Good to see ya back after your Psychadelic Denver Pski Trip!
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Post by Hawg Ass on Apr 4, 2015 18:25:16 GMT -6
Sorry I have been....out. Final Four bets Badgers baby. It is Bo's time. Wisconsin +5.5 2 u Wisconsin over 60.5 1st half, 2 u Wisconsin over 131, 2u Duke ML -Kentucky ML par 2u to win 1.96 Duke ML -Wis ML par 2u to win 6.32 Setting up a big payoff for a Wis win. Obviously need Duke to win 1st game..If Duke loses, out 4 u. Then, with 2 units on both Ky and Wis, I will be risking .04 units to win 5.32 on Wisconsin outright...ergo if Duke wins, I have a 133-1 ticket on Wisconsin. Part 1, DONE
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Post by Positivity KS on Apr 4, 2015 21:15:43 GMT -6
Sorry I have been....out. Final Four bets Badgers baby. It is Bo's time. Wisconsin +5.5 2 u Wisconsin over 60.5 1st half, 2 u Wisconsin over 131, 2u Duke ML -Kentucky ML par 2u to win 1.96 Duke ML -Wis ML par 2u to win 6.32 Setting up a big payoff for a Wis win. Obviously need Duke to win 1st game..If Duke loses, out 4 u. Then, with 2 units on both Ky and Wis, I will be risking .04 units to win 5.32 on Wisconsin outright...ergo if Duke wins, I have a 133-1 ticket on Wisconsin.
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Post by Hawg Ass on Apr 5, 2015 19:41:02 GMT -6
Congrats Coast!!
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Mar 2, 2016 11:30:13 GMT -6
Bet against Indiana.
OK, Crean won a B1G Regular Season Championship with the easiest shedule (thanks unbalanced scheduling!). Congrats.
Ah, but March is different. Crean can't outstrategize a monkey.
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Post by Hawg Ass on Mar 2, 2016 11:48:52 GMT -6
Bet against Indiana. OK, Crean won a B1G Regular Season Championship with the easiest shedule (thanks unbalanced scheduling!). Congrats. Ah, but March is different. Crean can't outstrategize a monkey. This post should have started with, this is a bias post.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2016 22:19:32 GMT -6
Well he was right. They lost to Michigan.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Mar 17, 2016 7:51:08 GMT -6
Chattanooga getting 12 against Indiana. Took the points.
#FireCrean
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2016 6:23:05 GMT -6
The worst a bracket has ever looked of mine after the first two days. Thank God for UNI last night.
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