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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 13, 2014 23:02:27 GMT -6
I will make a few hundred hoops picks during the year and some guys are likely only interested in football, so here is a separate thread for those interested in hoops picks. .
First pick of the year is:
Long Beach State +11.5 @ BYU Both teams return four starters and both are really deep. Both teams are picked to finish 1-3 in their conferences (Big West and West Coast) and both will be playing in some kind of tourney in March. BYU will surely play really fast, but even in mid-season, they usually aren't a great defensive team. LBS has two great guards, including probably the BW player of the year in Caffey. Early in the season, you want experienced guards who can penetrate and make plays. Here we get one of the best along with double digits. I make the line 8 (BYU Power Rating 80, LBS 76; plus 4 points Home Court Advantage), so I see value here to go with the situation.
Virginia Commonwealth -7.5 vs. Tennessee at Naval Academy You want to see a consummate college point guard? Watch VCU's Briante Webber. Dude can ball and is a tremendous defender. VCU is talented, superbly coached and pretty deep. Tennessee might be talented, but it's too early to know. Only one guy on the Vols was a regular starter last year. Vols have a new coach (Peter Principle hire), guys that haven't had significant playing time will be called on to carry the load. That's a tough spot for game 1 for a team like that to play a team as tenacious as VCU usually is. I make the line 10 (VCU 84, Tenn 74), so not a lot of value but this is really a situational play on a quality team against a team with a lot of question marks.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 14, 2014 9:45:18 GMT -6
Western Carolina - Mississippi State UNDER 145
Miss. State was a horrible shooting team last year, but played respectable defense considering they did not match up talent-wise vs. their SEC opponents. They get everybody back from last year so can be expected to be much better, plus have added (supposedly) some guys who can shoot. Western lost three of its starters and while they played at an above average pace last year, coach Larry Hunter has in the past run a more patterned offense when he has young and inexperienced guys on the floor. So while Miss State will want to play fast, I don't think Western is going to go with them...if they do, they probably get blown out early.
Virginia Commonwealth-Tennessee UNDER 140 VCU's defensive abilities were noted above, but what I am expecting from Tennessee is a focus on defense, as well. Coach Donnie Tyndall's Southern Miss teams really played hard nosed defense and with the Vols' inexperience and VCU's defensive intensity, they are going to have to because I think they are a bit out-matched when they have the ball. |
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Post by Hawg Ass on Nov 14, 2014 9:53:51 GMT -6
Looking forward to hoops season, should be fun watching Bucky play this year.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 14, 2014 10:25:56 GMT -6
Georgia Southern +23 @ Illinois GS has experienced guards and gets back their best player from two years ago. Illinois is experienced, but they are Illinois...inconsistent, sometimes careless with the ball and rarely playing to their talent. Now this year could be different...hope springs eternal in Champaign. But I see value in this number. I make Illinois an 81 and GS a 67, so that's 14+4 HCA = 18. Five points of value by my numbers makes this a play.
California Alcorn State UNDER 139 Alcorn was a lousy shooting team and played respectable defense (for the SWAC). Cal lost their best scorer, Cobb, and new coach Cuonzo Martin is notorious for coaching defense first when he takes on new teams and new seasons. Under Mike Montgomery, Cal was a free wheeling, running team. I don't expect Cal to look like that, at least Martin's teams never have played that way. I expect both teams to be slightly below the national average for pace, so I'll take under this number in game 1 with two teams that don't bring back great scorers.
Opinion on Chicago game:
DePaul -10.5 vs. UIC/143.5 (No play) DePaul returns four starters and could blow out UIC, but as inconsistent and poorly-coached as DePaul is, no way I'm laying the wood and backing them. Both teams will want to play fast, but UIC, in particular, is really bad. They might have trouble scoring points tonight and most nights. When I bet an over, I want both teams to participate. So while the pace might be fast enough, I have no confidence in either team's offensive efficiency.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 14, 2014 10:27:18 GMT -6
Looking forward to hoops season, should be fun watching Bucky play this year. Agreed. Bucky has the second lowest odds of any team to win the national title. Kentucky is about 2-1, Wisconsin is just a shade under 8-1. |
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Post by PositivelyJackref on Nov 14, 2014 10:30:07 GMT -6
Whatever the line is in the Grand Canyon/Kentucky game is I'll take Kentucky. Same for Kansas in KU/UC Santa Barbara game
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2014 10:59:02 GMT -6
Whatever the line is in the Grand Canyon/Kentucky game is I'll take Kentucky. Same for Kansas in KU/UC Santa Barbara game Kentucky -30 Kansas -15 |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 14, 2014 11:00:39 GMT -6
Kentucky is -30. FYI, Grand Canyon is coached by former NBA player Dan Majerle. Kansas is -15.
If you or anyone else needs to find a book to take your action, let me know (privately). I can put you in touch with one.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 14, 2014 12:05:44 GMT -6
Welcome to all my friends to whom I gave this link and who might be visiting this board from other parts of the world. I hope I can give you something to think about for your picks.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Nov 14, 2014 12:32:57 GMT -6
Coast, grade my strategy. Fade Indiana. Fade Fade Fade!!!
Crean needs to be fired. No lottery picks this year to bail his bum ass out.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 14, 2014 14:18:42 GMT -6
Well, I've never been a Crean fan. I thought he was over-rated at Marquette. Amazing what a lottery pick will do to a guy's reputation. They were mediocre every year in which Wade wasn't on the team. I was not a fan when IU hired him and said so. Cody Zoeller and a few other good players he recruited made him look good for a few years. So you will find no argument from me about Crean. If you look in certain places, you will probably find stuff from me criticizing Crean ten years ago. Too bad the IU administration didn't see it years ago and not hire him in the first place. Too bad it took IU fans so long to realize it. Maybe he would have been run out last year and you would have been on the road to mediocrity again with a new coach instead of falling further into the abyss of bad.
They will have a low power rating though and Crean has shown he is not shy about running it up against the weaklings he schedules. So they will cover some games against bad teams. But against teams with comparable talent, assuming the lines are reasonable, yes, I think fading would be the right approach. He has not shown he can out-coach anybody with comparable talent.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Nov 14, 2014 14:24:10 GMT -6
Did you post as MUScholar at the other board? I argued with him that Crean has been great for IU and brought them back to relevancy. MUScholar said no one at Marquette missed him. I was so naive and wrong!!!
That was before he somehow screwed up with 2 lottery picks and parlayed that national exposure into an awful 17-15 season.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 14, 2014 14:32:51 GMT -6
Ha, no I have always posted as Coast2Coast. MU Scholar and I go back to the early days of that board, though. Good man. No, there is another guy over there who is a big IU fan who took me to task about my opinions on Crean. I'm sure he is still a huge Crean supporter, or if he is not, probably totally forgets how dismissive he was of others for having an alternative opinion. But then, that's the MO over there. Be dismissive of people with whom you disagree.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Nov 14, 2014 15:49:36 GMT -6
Well, ok, you can tell him he was right. Dammit.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 14, 2014 15:57:43 GMT -6
Another one:
Towson - Alabama under 136
Towson lost their four top scorers and Bama lost Releford, who was their go-to guy. Bama plays tough defense usually and is the slowest team in the SEC. Without Releford to bail them out on the offensive end, Bama might be even more deliberate in game 1.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 14, 2014 17:02:33 GMT -6
Opening night of college hoops and already the market is pissing on one of my plays. Well, actually, it's more like one or two guys/betting syndicates who bet so much they "are" the market. Doesn't matter how many people are betting nickels and dimes, when a Billy Walters or RAS bets on something, the line moves 3 points. BYU up to 14. Vols-VCU up to 141.5. Such is life. College hoops lines are so volatile, it will happen almost every night. Some times they will move with us, sometimes against us. Some guys ask me "what happened to cause that line move"? In football, there usually is a reason for a 3 point move. The answer in college hoops is usually real simple: one or two guys bet on it...a lot. When certain guys bet, they move lines immediately. Usually nothing more to it than that.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 14, 2014 21:08:08 GMT -6
Another thing you will see in college hoops betting is guys over-reacting to injuries and suspensions. It happened with my very first bet of the year today. Some guys won't play a game if a key player is out. That's ok as far as a conservative strategy goes, but I actually sometimes find value in backing teams with guys that are out...when the price is right. One of the reasons the BYU LBS line moved today is because Tyler Lamb, their other returning guard and best 3 point shooter, was suspended. No big deal to me...LBS is deep and totally capable without him and I capped the game with the line 8 without him playing. I capped it at about 6 with him playing...2 points for a starting guard. Many people value injuries and suspensions much more. So in this case, the line move of 3 points, if it was due to his suspension, was an over-reaction and it had already been figured into the line anyway. The Beach covered easily. BYU never hit the spread number once all game. The line was 11.5 and climbed to 14, I made it 8, it landed 5. May all our bets work out this way.
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Post by PositivelyJackref on Nov 15, 2014 9:26:03 GMT -6
Nice to see KU start out over-rated again this year. Lucky for them UCSB couldn't hit a 3 all night. Always the Achilles heel in a Bill Self defense.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Nov 15, 2014 11:03:07 GMT -6
I tailed your Long Beach play and when I logged in nabbed them at 13. If Coast is comfortable at 11 then I'll gladly snack on the 13. Thanks for the play!
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 15, 2014 11:45:35 GMT -6
4-2-1 in night 1.
Nothing I love today but several teams I think will win outright and one team I like as a dog, which basically doubles the payout in a parlay, so playing just one parlay today: Bowling Green +3, Ohio ML, Kent St ML, Boise ML, San Diego ML and West KY ML pays 4.8/1...1/2 unit to win 2.4 units.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 15, 2014 21:21:32 GMT -6
Always nice to hit an almost 5 to 1 shot. Don't know if anybody tailed, but I'll play these from time to time...mostly always home favorites on the moneyline, though I deviated from that today. Closest game was the last one -- 8 points. They won't all be this easy.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2014 22:10:38 GMT -6
Always nice to hit an almost 5 to 1 shot. Don't know if anybody tailed, but I'll play these from time to time...mostly always home favorites on the moneyline, though I deviated from that today. Closest game was the last one -- 8 points. They won't all be this easy. I did. I missed out on Ohio, but it paid +465. Cheers, mate! |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 16, 2014 9:17:19 GMT -6
Two plays today:
Princeton +2, -120 @ George Mason
4 team ML parlay: 1 to win 1.15
Mass, Seton Hall, Penn State, Illinois State
I so want to bet Valpo today...but will pass..
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 17, 2014 17:07:28 GMT -6
Passing Monday card. Did not have time today to properly cap the card. Might have something after 9 pm for the overnight card (24 hours of hoops tonight).
Results after week 1:
2.1 units YTD.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 18, 2014 7:49:29 GMT -6
11 am this morning
South Carolina -1, -120, 2 units
Baylor South Carolina over 138, 1 unit
More later. Great card tonight.
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Post by PositivelyJackref on Nov 18, 2014 8:50:15 GMT -6
Two powerhouse games tonight with KU/Kentucky and Duke/Michigan St. Utah/SDSU should be good too.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 18, 2014 9:44:13 GMT -6
Two totals for tonight:
Toledo-VCU over 152.5
Xavier-Long Beach St over 145.5
Still not done with working the card, but I have a feeling these might move, so I'm getting them early.
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Post by PositivelyJackref on Nov 18, 2014 20:23:39 GMT -6
I hate that Stephen A Smith is on my TV doing college hoops. I hope this isn't a permanent thing.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 19, 2014 19:15:58 GMT -6
2-2 yesterday but - $$.
Gonzo Joe over 136. I expect St Joe to press much of the game and try to force TOs..but if it doesn't lead to TOs. it likely will result in a faster game and shorter possessions for Gonzaga.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 20, 2014 17:27:02 GMT -6
Yesterday: push on Gonzo Joe over. Had you told me Gonzo would score 94 points last night, I would have told you my over had a 99% chance to win. St Joe scored 42 in 70+ possessions? Unreal .
Tonight I have a hoops foots moneyline parlay that pays almost 3-2.
Duke (FB) -220 Moneyline vs UNC
Syracuse BB -245 Moneyline vs Cal
West Virginia BB -475 Moneyline vs George Mason
Pays 1.48 to 1 unit bet
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