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Post by Kirkwoodref on Nov 3, 2014 6:19:28 GMT -6
NFL: 9-11 +.99 units
NCAA: 14-9 +13.19
Powered by a 3-1 weekend in NCAA: La Tech, UL-Lafayette, Connecticut & the chokers Louisville.
Treading water in NFL: Jet, Texan ML and only winner in Dolphin.
Granularly:
Spread: 19-14 +7.32
Teaser: 2-1 +1.16
Total: 1-2 +1.90
ML: 0-3 -.59
Parlay: 1-0 +4.40
The parlay & spread are skewed as I hedged. So spread is technically 10.24 and parlay is 1.48.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 5, 2014 8:03:26 GMT -6
Light week in this thread last week....to date: CFB -5.9; Golf +4.94; NFL +1.93; Bases -0.63..
NFL teaser: Green Bay -1, Seattle -3, 2u
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 7, 2014 21:54:36 GMT -6
Optimistic about my totals model this week.. 3 plays at 1.5 units each:
Georgia Southern Texas State over 62.5
Notre Dame - Arizona State over 60.5
Kansas State - TCU under 58
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 8, 2014 10:54:31 GMT -6
Floyd of Rosedale
Iowa was -1 most of the week, late money moved it to Minny -1 and now Iowa is -2. Looks like the Friday move on Minnesota was just a setup to get Iowa as a dog. Somebody came over the top on the Hawkeyes big time this morning to move the line 3 points. I don't disagree.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 9, 2014 9:25:36 GMT -6
The brutal beats continue. K State has a 75 yard play with 1:30 left against the TCU bench warmers on defense to screw the pooch on the under.
Maybe the NFL will be kinder today. Two 1 u power rating plays on bad teams getting too many points.
Jets +4 -115
Tampa Bay +3 -115
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Post by November KS on Nov 10, 2014 0:13:21 GMT -6
Got Keegan on the wrong day, I guess. Oh well. I have another one I'm eyeing for tomorrow once the matchup lines come out. New Bet: Bears under 8.5 wins, +125, 3 units The more I look at this Bears team, the more I see a defense with a lot of holes. And the team is so thin, if it has key injuries, as you expect all NFL teams to have, it could be 6-10. I see 6 wins more probable than 10 and 7 wins more likely than 9, so I will take the under 8.5 for plus money. I know it is not popular, but I agree. They are going to score some points, but that defense looks awful. I would've taken the Bears and the over at that time and that is why I'm a maroon. You people do fine work. |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 10, 2014 16:17:41 GMT -6
Thank you, sir. We saw last night what this Bears defense looks like when it has a few injuries. The depth on this team going into this season was off the charts bad. We are seeing that now in the secondary. You can argue that the Bears coaches have not properly coached their best players, but you also could make the case Emery spent so much money on the stars (hello Jay Cutler) that there is little money left to build the depth NFL teams need. And other than a few starters, the draft hasn't effectively built depth on the 53 man roster either. Well, the kind of depth you want anyway.
The other thing that is really obvious is that invariably there are a few teams that are always over-priced in the preseason over/unders -- and the Bears and Cubs are two of them. The Bears and Cubs fan bases are so predictable in their optimism, and Vegas knows it. The fact I got +125 on under 8.5 is one indicator. That means Bears fans were paying -145 to take the over. Vegas reels them in every year. The single-year probability or the number of years Bears overs actually cash are way less than 7/10, which is basically what you need to justify paying -145.
Speaking of the over-pricing of the Cubs, the Cubs right now are 10-1 to win the NL pennant. The Giants are 7-1. That is so ridiculous as to be laughable, but surely there are Cubs fans who have drunk the Maddon Kool Aid who are buying that future. (I make fair price about 35-1). And when the Cubs over/under comes out, the Cubs ALS will surely buy the over. I will wait until the week before the season begins and most likely will have an advantageous number to take under.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Nov 11, 2014 7:56:12 GMT -6
Week 11 Update:
I need to stay away from NFL. I'm psyching myself out and out thinking games.
NFL: 9-14 -2.58 units
NCAA: 14-9 +13.23
Powered by a 2-2-1 weekend in NCAA: Alabama, Utah, AZ State, Vandy & UTEP.
Getting killed in NFL 0-2: Bengal & Panther
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Nov 11, 2014 8:10:22 GMT -6
With every team in the the AFC North essentially tied there appears to be a tasty betting opportunity.
Bal +250
Cin +250
Cle +300
Pit +250
I believe the division is a race to 10 wins.
Bal & Pit give me the most comfort. We shall see whether I play both or just play my favorite Baltimore.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 11, 2014 9:54:03 GMT -6
CFB: -7.7; NFL: +3.83 (Golf: 4.94, Bases -0.63).
College hoops starts this week with more than 100 games this weekend. There are a few entertaining games but mostly capping the card will consist of whether to lay big wood or take the points....and trying to project pace for totals. Time to polish off the math skills, starting with the basic pace formula. More on that coming in the tips thread.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 12, 2014 22:46:44 GMT -6
I'm sucking at college foots this season, but there is still plenty of time.
Georgia -2, -115 vs. Auburn
There is a situational angle that comes into play around this time of year that says that teams that are in the hunt for the national title, but then lose and fall out of a chance at the title, are flat as hell the next week. The team is depressed and hard to get up to peak performance. Auburn fits that angle this week. This is Georgia's last SEC game and needs a W to stay in the hunt for the SEC West. ALl they need is to win and hope Mizzou loses one of its three remaining SEC games. Fundamentally, Auburn was gashed by Texas AM on the ground last week, which Georgia is perfectly capable of doing this week with Gurley back for this game. Situational plus fundamental equals play.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 13, 2014 20:58:06 GMT -6
The rest of my football card for the weekend:
U. Pittsburgh - UNC over 67.5
Utah - Stanford under 43
Memphis - Tulane under 47
Auburn-Georgia over 69.5
Georgia Southern - Navy over 63...2**
Mississippi State +10 @ Bama
NY Giants +4 vs. Niners
Tampa Bay +7.5 -115 @ Washington
Seattle + (only one not yet bet; currently 2.5; waiting for a 3 to pop up somewhere. I think if it does, it won't last long.)
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Nov 18, 2014 6:37:37 GMT -6
I could've had a disastrous weekend if I didn't employ glorious live betting. I used to let my bets ride but have become more paranoid. It's an indictment of my initial play which I need to be more careful reviewing why I made the play.
NCAA: 2-2 -.88 units
NFL: 3-2 +.76 units
NCAA: L Duke -5, W Va Tech +10.5 (LB), W Miss St/Bama U54.5 (LB), L Kentucky/Indiana/GA Southern Teaser
NFL: L Giants +4, W Pats ML, L Colts ML (LB Hedge), W Min/Chi U46.5, W Pit/Ten U52.5
I locked in Duke -5 earlier in the week and saw the line move against me Saturday. So when Duke went up 10-0 I bough Virginia Tech at +10.5 as I got 2 keys in 10 & 7 as middle opportunities. Duke blew a lot of chances with a RZ turnover and FGs instead of touchdowns. The game was 16-10 going into the 4th so my middle was looking possible but Va Tech squeaked out a 17-16 win. I'll gladly lose the vig rather than the initial principal.
I was periodically building my Pats ML position throughout Sunday as they were +130 in the morning and jumped to +138 in the afternoon. I should've been more confident that the Pats wouldn't blow the game but I jumped on the Colts ML for +135 in live betting the first quarter. Locked in profit but if I waited I could've gotten better odds. Nothing to get too mad about.
I've been treading water for the past few weeks. There's much worse phases to be stuck in so I won't complain.
YTD:
NFL: 12-16 -1.83 units
NCAA: 18-13-3 +12.35 units
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 18, 2014 12:12:22 GMT -6
Nice week in college football, going 6-1 with a +5.9 unit profit. Went 1-1 in NFL. Back in black in football...barely. Pleased with my totals model, going 4-1. Only Auburn failed to do what was expected and while I had Georgia to counteract the totals loss, I at least expected Auburn to score some points. Teams that lose big games that take them out of the running for national titles often have those kinds of letdowns. Will we see one this week from Miss. State? 29 points is a big nut if the team isn't into it emotionally and is still thinking about Bama.
Another team that might be deflated this week is Notre Dame. Their season has gone into the crapper the last two weeks. Losing from ahead like they did has to just be a stab in the gut. What are they playing for now -- the difference between a bowl game in Tampa or one in Texas? Hard to see them motivated, but fundamentally, their defense blows. Louisville just might give a shit about putting an Irish notch in their belts. I'll betcha Petrino does. And they clearly have the much better defense.
Thread to date:
CFB: -1.8; NFL: +3.73 (Other sports: +4.31)
One total so far for Thursday night:
Duke-Nor Carolina over 66.5
Two sides for Saturday:
Vanderbilt +29.5 @ Mississippi State
Louisville +3.5 @ Notre Dame
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Nov 20, 2014 8:19:27 GMT -6
I'll post my picks before the games so if people want to tail my skunkers then all power to them.
As of 11/20:
NFL 12-16 (1.83) units
NCAA 18-14-3 +11.91 units
11/20 Thursday Night Football
Oakland +7.5
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 22, 2014 9:25:55 GMT -6
The totals model kicked out five unders this week and two overs -- the most plays since I locked the model down a few weeks ago. Totals for Saturday:
Missouri-Tennessee under49.5
Maryland Michigan under 42
Northwestern Purdue under 51.5
New Mexico Colo State over 66.
Oregon State Washington under 53.5
USF Memphis under 46
Fresneck Nevada over 62
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Nov 24, 2014 6:42:16 GMT -6
I'll post my picks before the games so if people want to tail my skunkers then all power to them. As of 11/20: NFL 12-16 (1.83) units NCAA 18-14-3 +11.91 units 11/20 Thursday Night Football Oakland +7.5 This weekend was the type that makes you love gambling investing. Week 12 NFL: 5-1 +3.51 units NCAA: 4-1 +2.76 units NFL: Raiders +7.5 W, Various KC/OAK live bets net W, TB/NYG/GB -7.5 teaser W, DET/NE u48 W, Giants ML L, Cowboys ML (LB) WNCAA: Appalachian St +10 W, W. Michigan +1 W, Virginia +6 W, Miami ML (LB) L, Washington -6 WI was cautious this week with NFL this week. I had a feeling this would be a great week for dogs but I picked the wrong ones! I was feeling Giants, Jags, Titans and Vikings. Fortunately I only moved on the Giants ML at +200 and then I locked in profit after they scored the 4th quarter touchdown by locking in Cowboys ML +160. The KC/OAK live bets were bets about outcomes of drives. I made around half a unit tinkering around with those. If I let the UVA bet ride I would've had a perfect weekend. I got greedy and snapped up Miami ML +110 at half when they were down 13-7. Live bet giveth and taketh. Overall through 11/24NFL: 17-17 +1.68 units NCAA: 22-14-1 +15.12 units |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Dec 4, 2014 23:13:49 GMT -6
New Bet: Bears under 8.5 wins, +125, 3 units The more I look at this Bears team, the more I see a defense with a lot of holes. And the team is so thin, if it has key injuries, as you expect all NFL teams to have, it could be 6-10. I see 6 wins more probable than 10 and 7 wins more likely than 9, so I will take the under 8.5 for plus money. Ding ding ding. The Bears are who we thought they were. Just in time too lol. Momma wrecked the car yesterday. Time to go car shoppin. |
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Dec 8, 2014 6:36:22 GMT -6
Week 14 Update:
NCAA: 2-1 +1.74
NFL: 2-2 +2.74
A scary weekend that could've have been bad.
NCAA: Louisiana Tech +11 W, Florida St -3.5 L, Georgia Tech 3.5 (LB) W
NFL: Seattle 1 W, Tampa Bay +10.5 L, Cleveland 3 W, Parlay: TB 10.5, Cle 3, PIT (ML) L
Everyone appeared to have Georgia Tech as their "upset special" so I went the other way. Once the game started I hated how FSU was playing so I wanted out of FSU bet ASAP. When FSU got GA Tech to punt late in the 2nd I grabbed 3.5 and gladly paid vig to get out of the bet. As we all know, FSU left points on the board, couldn't shut the door and the Jackets snuck in a cover. Crab legs never fails to let down his backers.
I was heavy on Seattle. Sanchez vs. Seattle D and Philly was laying a point?!?!?!?!? WTF, yes please. Cleveland fucked up their game but at least didn't screw up the cover. Bucs sucked, were never in it and damn near got the backdoor. A silly little parlay that had a +700 payout.
YTD:
NFL: 20-20 +4.78 units
NCAA: 26-19-1 +12.34 units
Two pending preseason wagers:
Seattle 1st in NFC West
Dolphins over 8 wins
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Dec 15, 2014 6:46:08 GMT -6
Week 15 Update:
NCAA: None
NFL: 2-2-1 +6.40
NFL: Loaded up on Minnesota +7.5 W and Saints -3 W, missed on small Titans ML +160 L, and lost a silly parlay for .10 unit (MIA +7.5, MIN +7, HOU +7, NO -3, TEN +3.
YTD Record:
NFL: 22-22-1 +11.18
NCAA: 26-19-1 +12.34
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Dec 22, 2014 16:47:37 GMT -6
Week 16 Update:
NCAA: 0-1 -3.83u
NFL: 1-4 -1.83u
Win Totals:
NFL: 1-0 +3.2u (Miami o8 push so far...)
NCAA: W. Michigan. I was overconfident on W. Michigan and laid too much on them. Ouch babe.
NFL: Tennessee +4.5 L, Kansas City ML L, NE/DET/GB Teaser L, Arizona ML (hedge) L, Giants +6.5 W
Win Totals:
Seattle Wins West W
Miami o8 P so far...
Overall:
NFL: 25-26-1 9.35
NCAA: 26-20-1 9.01
I have a pretty shitty record. I've been fortunate to pound the games I really like. I'd say this season has been mostly luck. Not sustainable but beats losing. Definitely seen progression when comparing my log from last year's season. I used to be a huge chalk eater.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Dec 25, 2014 21:51:43 GMT -6
Back in action with a few bowl plays
Louisiana Tech -6 vs Illinois 1.5*
Texas +7 vs Ark. -130. 1u
LSU-7, -120 1u
Miami, USC, LSU, ML parlay 1 unit to win 2.03
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Dec 29, 2014 11:11:20 GMT -6
Week 17 Update:
NCAA: 4-1 +3.23u
NFL: 1-1 +1.02u
NCAA: Navy ML W, Louisiana Tech -6 W, Virginia Tech +3 W, Virginia Tech ML W, Nebraska/USC U63.5 L
NFL: Chiefs -3 W, DC/Dallas U48.5 L
Overall:
NFL: 25-27-2 +10.37u
NCAA: 30-21-1 +12.24u
Granularly:
Side: 39-29-2 +17.14
Teaser: 3-3 +.86u
Total: 6-5 1.79u
Moneyline: 5-9 (1.28)u
Parlay: 1-2 +4.10
Win Total: 1-0-1 +3.20u
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Post by Coast2Coast on Jan 1, 2015 0:42:34 GMT -6
Here is what I am playing. Fade away!
Wisconsin -Auburn over 63.5, 2u
Wisconsin +7, -105, 1u
Missouri -4, 2u
Ohio State +10, -120, 1u
FSU +10, -130 (bought a few days ago), 1u
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Jan 16, 2015 12:55:47 GMT -6
Conference Championship Weekend Update:
NFL: 27-30-2 +12.17
NCAA: 33-25-1 +13.07
Here's a recap of my plays since my last update post:
| Winners | Losers | | Clemson/Okla U52 | Ole Miss +3.5 (vs TCU | | Notre Dame +8.5 (vs. LSU) | Louisville (+7) ML (vs. UGA) | | Lion/Cowboy U48.5 | Mich St/Baylor U70 | | Oregon/Ohio State 74.5 | E. Carolina +7 (vs. FLA) | | Packers -4.5 | Lion ML (vs. DAL Live Hedge) | | Raven/Patriot U47.5 | | Packers -6.5 |
Last week I locked in early Packers -6.5 and then doubled up when I saw -4.5 Sunday (heart bet). So I lost vig. I was a 2pt conversion away from doubling up and a Dez Bryant catch from doubling down. Gambling is something else. Interesting "trends":Totals: 9-7 +7.03 - All my total bets have been unders. Side: 41-31-2 - 66% of my 74 plays have been on the underdog. When I first started gambling 3 years ago I never once bet an underdog. |
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Jan 18, 2015 22:28:21 GMT -6
 My season record is above. I'm done. I'm too heartbroken to bet the Super Bowl. I'll get out while I'm ahead. I despise both teams so I won't be rational on deciding on who to wager. |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Jan 31, 2015 11:43:49 GMT -6
My Super Bowl bets.
Seattle pick 1 unit (Net; have some on both sides trying to play a line move that never came)
I could break down all the offenses/defenses/special teams, etc. but bottom line is I make Seattle a slight favorite, mainly because of their defense, of course. However, that is not to say that the Seattle defense will dominate. I expect both teams to score in this game. So I have a combination of overs for 3 units:
Game over 47 1 u
Seattle over 24 1 u
New England over 24 1u
Props:
These are all about value. I don't see much value in betting on props that are pure guesses or mostly random (first TD, coin flip, etc.) but look for props that have guys who will touch the ball a lot with good value on their props:
Blount MVP 14-1... 1/2 u to win 7 units
Blount to score a TD...1/2 u to win .65
Edelman to score a TD...1/2 u to win .85
Yes, I am picking Seattle to win the game, but have three New England props. As I said, it's about value and the fact I see both teams scoring. Or, if you like, the New England props are a hedge against the Seattle straight bet. I know I won't win both Seattle outright and Blount MVP, but maybe I can win all the rest. The 14-1 on Blount is a pure flyer anyway.
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Post by Hawg Ass on Jan 31, 2015 11:48:43 GMT -6
Thanks Coast wish you all the best.
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Post by PositivelyJackref on Jan 31, 2015 13:51:54 GMT -6
Where are you staying out there Coast? And which book is your favorite? I was a big Manadalay book guy until the Aria opened up. They have an incredible sports book area.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Jan 31, 2015 20:20:13 GMT -6
I won a little money betting the Hawks yesterday against Anaheim. Going use the winnings to tail Coast with the over. I like Seahawks this game but I just can't back them. Bunch a jagoffs nut grabbers.
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