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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 26, 2014 17:59:39 GMT -6
Live betting game 5. Start with a position on Royals 1u @+145.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 26, 2014 18:53:44 GMT -6
Giants lead 1-0 after 2. Bought another unit on Royals at +245. 2 units on Royals now. Maybe go 1/2 unit more if price goes above 300 in a one-run game, but otherwise will have to sit here until they score.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 26, 2014 19:35:03 GMT -6
2-0 Giants. 1/2 unit more on Royals at +484. I'm done buying KC. Looks like it might be the Giants' night as the Royals haven't figured out Bumgarner. 2.5 units is my loss limit usually.
Current status: Royals 2.5 units @ average price of +2.696.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Oct 27, 2014 5:29:56 GMT -6
Recap after the halfway-ish mark of the NFL/NCAA seasons:
NFL: 8-8 1.37 units
NCAA: 11-8 9.64 units
Given the softer lines (in my opinion) with some games I've put larger units on NCAA. For instance, I pounded Georgia Southern early this season. The NFL terrifies me so I'm much more inclined to stick to 1 unit or less.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 28, 2014 17:30:39 GMT -6
Update on picks in this thread, not counting live betting since nobody can fade or follow those. Down about 1/2 unit overall. Nothing to brag about. Only good thing is college basketball starts in 12 days.
CFB -5.8; Golf +4.94; NFL +1.93; Bases -1.63
1 unit on OVER 7 in WS Game 6 tonight with the Peavy/Ventura matchup.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 28, 2014 17:32:43 GMT -6
Live Betting Game 6 of World Series:
Opening position 1 unit on Giants +131. (Also on over 7 fixed, no plans to trade that).
In this matchup last week, KC won 7-2.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 28, 2014 19:11:56 GMT -6
7 runs in, I hope Bochy doesn't use up his pitchers in this blowout. Let one or two guys take the beating. Need a fresh bullpen for game 7. I figure the odds of the Giants coming back are close to 10,000 to 1. Don't see much use in buying more Giants at any price sure to be less than fair value.
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Post by Hawg Ass on Oct 28, 2014 19:17:36 GMT -6
7 runs in, I hope Bochy doesn't use up his pitchers in this blowout. Let one or two guys take the beating. Need a fresh bullpen for game 7. I figure the odds of the Giants coming back are close to 10,000 to 1. Don't see much use in buying more Giants at any price sure to be less than fair value. I have said the same thing to Piglet about the bullpen, you can't blow thru it tonight. |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 28, 2014 19:17:44 GMT -6
Guess I'm not surprised they aren't offering a number in live betting. Certainly, whatever the number, some big time gamblers would have bet the Royals at a prohibitive number.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Oct 28, 2014 19:29:00 GMT -6
Who goes tomorrow for both teams?
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Post by November KS on Oct 28, 2014 19:29:28 GMT -6
I was listening to most of this eruption in the car and was wondering how this kind of game would go for Live Betting. I knew I could count on this thread!!
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 28, 2014 20:19:11 GMT -6
Tomorrow I am expecting the same pitchers from game 3: Guthrie and Hudson.
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Post by Hawg Ass on Oct 28, 2014 20:21:00 GMT -6
Tomorrow I am expecting the same pitchers from game 3: Guthrie and Hudson. That is correct. |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 29, 2014 17:29:31 GMT -6
Game 7 live betting
Giants +131 1/2 unit pregame
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 29, 2014 18:45:01 GMT -6
Giants lead 2-0.
Bottom of 2nd.
Bought 1u Royals at +180.
Current status:
Giants win: Lose .35 units
Royals win: WIn 1.3 units
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 29, 2014 19:02:41 GMT -6
Royals tie it up, bought .7 units Giants at +135 to win .94 to essentially even it up.
Giants win: 1.59 units - 1 = .59 u
Royals win: 1.8 - 1.2 = .6 u
Going to bottom of 3rd, score tied, bought 1/2 units Giants @ +164 to win .82.
Current Status:
Giants Win: 2.41 - 1 = + 1.41
Royals Win: 1.8 - 1.7 = + .1
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 29, 2014 19:41:21 GMT -6
Giants take lead in 4th, 3-2.
Bought .61 units on Royals at +115 to win .70 and even up profits at .8 units each way.
Giants win: 2.41 - 1.61 = 0.8
Royals win: 2.5 - 1.7 = 0.8
I'll sit on that profit for the night and root on the Giants to win.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Oct 30, 2014 11:27:05 GMT -6
Snapped up Louisville +6 -112 on Monday. Right now the number is Louisville +4 and I saw +3.5 last night. Unless there's a push of Louisvile +2.5 so they can crush Florida State I'll sit on Louisville +6. I'd risk a chance to middle if I can get 3 and 4 key numbers. Coast did have a profitable World Series....help a brother out pounding it to 2.5?  |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 31, 2014 18:13:24 GMT -6
Sorry man didn't see your post yesterday. I don't move lines anyway.
Night 1 of Live Betting the NBA. Here is the basic strategy. Home favorite gets behind, you get a good price on them, take em. If they get even or ahead, even it up and lock in a profit either way. For example, tonight, the Bulls are -4.5. If the Bulls get behind and I can get them at plus money on the moneyline, I take it. Then if/when they pull even and I can get Cavaliers at plus money, I take them and even up the profit.
Some times, depending on the line moves, you can get a middle because the books will move the line rather than the moneyline. For example, tonight the Bulls are -4.5. If they get down 7-10, the game will be about pick em. I'd buy the Bulls at pick em and then if/when the Bulls get even or ahead, I buy the Cavs at +4.5 or more.
I never buy a team at minus odds or minus points unless it is necessary to even up the profit in the 3rd or 4th quarter.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 31, 2014 18:34:00 GMT -6
Another thing to look at in NBA games is the over/under. Early in the season like this, the totals are likely off by more than the sides. But I like to look for opportunities. Eight minutes into the game, Bulls-Cavs have socred 41 points (22-19). That is 2/3 of the first quarter and a pace of 60 points/quarter or 240 for the game. The game closed at 193.5. The live line was 201. So you could say, the pace of this game is going to go way over 201. But, while Cleve wants to play fast, eventually the Bulls defense is likely going to slow the pace back. So I'm not quick to jump on over 201. In fact, if the pace stays fast for the first half and there is continued high shooting % and number climbs to 220 or thereabouts, I would likely look to go under on the odds that the teams will not keep up that pace and go over a closing game line by 30 points. But that is a much better strategy in February and March when the lines are much tighter than it is in October and November.
Good to have basketball betting back, even if it is the NBA.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 31, 2014 19:05:15 GMT -6
Ok we have action. Under 4 minutes in first half, Cavs up 8, live line is Cavs -3.5 even. I have 1 unit on BUlls +3.5
Bulls tie this up/take the lead by the end of the third quarter, I should be able to get Cavs at + points and set up a middle. If Bulls fall further behind, depending on game dynamics, I might buy another 1/2 unit at a higher line. Home chalk is rarely blown out at home and never get back in the game...though it's always a possibility.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 31, 2014 19:45:10 GMT -6
With three minutes left in third quarter, Bulls are down 3 and the line is Cleve -1.5. Bulls on a little run, if they can get in the lead, should get + both ways.
Just sharing these to give you an idea of how the book prices things during a game.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 31, 2014 20:02:37 GMT -6
With 9:05 left in the game, moneyline only is offered at Bulls +380. Down 3, this line is a mistake. Bought 1/2 unit on Bulls at +380.
If Bulls keep this close, should have an opportunity under 6 and under 3 to even the profits on the line, moneyline or both.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 31, 2014 20:24:05 GMT -6
Bought another half unit Bulls at +380.
With 1:-5 left, two Hinrich treys have given Bulls a 5 point lead. Book offered nothing live, so I'm riding 2 units on Bulls + and ML.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 31, 2014 20:55:41 GMT -6
Blow a five point lead with a minute to play, lose by 6 in OT.
I hate the NBA.
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Post by November KS on Oct 31, 2014 21:01:40 GMT -6
Blow a five point lead with a minute to play, lose by 6 in OT. I hate the NBA. I love the NBA but this post is great. |
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Post by PositivelyJackref on Oct 31, 2014 21:14:52 GMT -6
I despise the NBA. Most fixed sport out there (more than harness racing!) - Donaghy wasn't/isn't the only one... isn't that right MISTER CRAWFORD!!
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Post by November KS on Oct 31, 2014 21:27:07 GMT -6
I despise the NBA. Most fixed sport out there (more than harness racing!) - Donaghy wasn't/isn't the only one... isn't that right MISTER CRAWFORD!! Denied!  |
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Post by PositivelyJackref on Oct 31, 2014 21:47:45 GMT -6
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Post by Coast2Coast on Nov 1, 2014 8:20:33 GMT -6
Losing two units last night on the Bulls at + moneylast night when they were up 5 with a minute left was a reminder that I need to stay the hell away from betting the league. There was more incompetence/shadiness/general BS in that last minute then I will see in a month of college hoops...not to mention two horrible ref calls that also helped get the game to OT.
College football today. Just two totals made my cut:
Air Force Army over 56
Duke Pitt over 48.5
Wind and rain might be factors in both games, but even so, I see good value in both games.fro
No sides today... other than the picks from certain others that I will fade.
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