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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 17, 2014 23:06:02 GMT -6
Post em when you have em. Games are inside two weeks now so time to get to work.
Tulane-Tulsa under 47
Two bottom 20 offenses,at least on paper before the season. Defenses would get shredded if they were playing anybody. But they are not. Bad teams under.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Aug 18, 2014 7:06:56 GMT -6
Coast,
Do you generally stay away from playing team wins totals? I always wondered the handle generated as they seem to be the opposite of the instant gratification reason that many recreational and action junkies gamble in the 1st place.
My two plays this year:
San Francisco under 10.5 (-130)
Cincinnati Bengals under 9 (-125)
Both plays are juiced up but I still see value.
San Francisco: The short story is 49ers have depended on their defense and timely offense. Many key pieces are defense are injured/suspended and or new to the defense. They will undergo a large regression here. The offense will be much improved with full season of Crabtree, Johnson, Boldin and Davis. Kaepernick is dynamic but I'm not sold on him to carry the team as opposed to complementing the defense.
Cincinnati: Largely benefitted from Steelers and Ravens have down years. They're a team in transition with both OC and DC gone. They lost their DE Johnson but are getting Atkins back from injury. I don't trust Hue Jackson to run the Bengals offense.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 18, 2014 7:44:51 GMT -6
I have bet them in the past occasionally. I was not on them immediately this year so I missed the best numbers. They are a way Vegas can take FB bets in summer off season, but they are not a big take for Vegas in that most guys play them as just another flat bet. They get heavy action early, then become just another offering after numbers have risen. This year, like previous years, some may have gone too far...Carolina under seems to be vogue and the value may now be on over at nearly +200. The loss of their receivers may be mispriced now.
If you have a credit account, then they are worth considering. If you have to tie up your money for 5-7 months in Vegas, you have to also consider the time value of money. You are giving Vegas your money to hold for months with no interest.
Both your plays make sense. Good luck!
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 19, 2014 21:09:06 GMT -6
going to ride mickelson and fowler on the links this week. Betting 1% on each to finish top 10 @ +190 each. Also taking Mickelson +118 vs. Furyk and Fowler +105 v. Rose in tourney matchups for 2% each.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 19, 2014 21:56:26 GMT -6
California +10 at Northwestern.
Could Cal's defense possibly be as bad as last year's? Guess we will find out. Also will find out if the Cats' secondary is all it is cracked up to be. If it is, it will be the first time in Fitz's rregime. Cal will move the ball through the air and will score points, which is very handy for a double digit dog.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 20, 2014 14:08:41 GMT -6
Ohio State-Navy under 56.5
With a QB making his first start for the Buckeyes, it is hard to see him having a big day. Maybe we can expect a slightly more conservative game plan? And with the entire off season to prepare for Navy's bone, there should not be a lot of mystery for the bigger, stronger OSU defense to have to figure out. Navy will run left, right and up the middle. Roll clock roll.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 21, 2014 9:05:16 GMT -6
Rutgers +8 vs. Wazu in Seattle
Power Rating play. I keep my own numbers but my track record has taught me to be selective early. I will share the #s in a few weeks when my confidence is higher. This is probably the only PR side play I will have this week.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 21, 2014 12:23:43 GMT -6
the line on ricky bobbie (er fowler) rose to +130 last night, so i bought more. I shoulda waited til wed night to bet that. here is why...there is a syndicate in vegas called the golf boys who bet on weds and they usually move lines. they have been fading ricky most weeks and did it again this week. maybe one week they will win. just not this week hopefully.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 22, 2014 14:38:28 GMT -6
Looks like my picks on Tits Mickelson and Rickie Bobbie shat the bed. Titty just can't seem to keep it together week after week. His hot streaks last about as long as an old man's erection. Rickie has had a magical year and I am not writing him off yet for one bad day.
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Post by Hawg Ass on Aug 22, 2014 14:48:43 GMT -6
Coast, are you saying the blue pill would help Phil? This Ryder Cub is going to be a blood bath, I don't even know if I want to watch it.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 22, 2014 15:15:01 GMT -6
titty needs whatever kind of pill will keep him more consistent. he has had more than the usual ..for him...missed cuts and out of contentions. ryder cup is my single favorite sporting event. but yep this year's will likely be brutal. price on the euros keeps rising but under 200 i think it is a good bet. shaping up to be a rout
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 22, 2014 15:29:52 GMT -6
i have not bet ryder cup yet. but i plan to bet euros kinda big. what would help is if some americans could win/finish high next few weeks. that might drop the price a tad in encouraging american bettors to start betting their heart rather than their brain.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 22, 2014 22:18:31 GMT -6
Seattle to win western division of NFC +110, 5 units.
With the well-documented Niners troubles, getting plus money on Seahawks to win the west seems really strong to me. And with a credit account I don't have to tie up $$ for 4 months.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Aug 25, 2014 7:11:12 GMT -6
Week 1: Panther @ Buccaneer UNDER 39.5
Both teams have had a lot of turnover on their offensive sides of the ball while their defensive cores have stayed the same. Last year both ranked in the top 10 Football Outsider's DVOA team defense ranking. There has been some turnover in with Revis out in TB but subbed in was Verner and Johnson. Carolina had quite a bit of turnover in their secondary but their front-7 is still loaded.
Both offense are in flux. The Panthers have had to revamp their line and receivers on a shoestring budget. The Bucs are in their 1st year under Tedford with a very shaky line.
In a nutshell, two defensive aces in Smith and Rivera will have their side of the ball ready to rock. Both sides have their offensive units under construction.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 25, 2014 9:03:38 GMT -6
Arkansas +20.5 @ Auburn
Year 2 of Bielenema should be much better as teams usually make step change improvement. Auburn had a magical year last year, but things are a bit different with this team. Yet this line seems based on our memories of last year, not this year.
UTEP+7.5 @ New Mexico
Lobos may be one of the 10 worst teams in the land, certainly bottom 20. So whenever a really bad team is laying more than a TD, I get interested in fading the soft favorite.
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Post by Hawg Ass on Aug 25, 2014 9:23:00 GMT -6
Arkansas +20.5 @ Auburn Year 2 of Bielenema should be much better as teams usually make step change improvement. Auburn had a magical year last year, but things are a bit different with this team. Yet this line seems based on our memories of last year, not this year. UTEP+7.5 @ New Mexico Lobos may be one of the 10 worst teams in the land, certainly bottom 20. So whenever a really bad team is laying more than a TD, I get interested in fading the soft favorite. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Coast is a very smart man, jump on board the Razorback train fellas. |
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Aug 25, 2014 14:35:33 GMT -6
Tedford is going to undergo a medical procedure a miss a couple of weeks. Game is off the board now. Wasn't able put in my wager before the news broke! Didn't even know this was occurring. Dammit.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 27, 2014 22:03:27 GMT -6
Rutgers Wazu over 62
I like Rutgers and believe their offense will keep the game close. You have to figure both veteran QBs should have a decent night.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 27, 2014 22:11:46 GMT -6
Golf doesn't start til Friday this week, but I am riding Rickie again in at least one matchup vs Stenson and to finish top 10. He has FIVE top tens in a row and I have been on the last 4. Unreal. Some people might fade a streak like that, but I believe you ride streaks. But I will wait to see if the faders go against him tomorrow and give us better prices. I also may have one other. Golf last week: +2.3.
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Post by Hawg Ass on Aug 27, 2014 22:21:24 GMT -6
Coast the avatar is amazing!!
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 27, 2014 22:56:17 GMT -6
Thanks. I have had it a long time --stole it from somebody else maybe 15 years ago. Good time for it. Football and fried chicken are a great combo in my world.
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Post by November KS on Aug 27, 2014 23:29:14 GMT -6
Coast, what's your thoughts on cribbage?
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 28, 2014 8:48:15 GMT -6
Great game played by 75 year old rich Republican women while sopping down high balls. Hilarious.
Having said that ...how much we playing per point?
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 28, 2014 18:09:58 GMT -6
Golf bets locked and loaded
Rickie Fowler +112 vs. Henrik Stenson, 2u
Fowler to finish top 10, +170, 1 u
sure enough, better prices today. Stenson has good course form, winning this last year, but his recent form not good. Rickie has been a machine. HOW LONG CAN IT LAST?
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 29, 2014 15:44:21 GMT -6
Something to add on the golf....Stenson is ranked #70 in the Fed Ex points and needs to finish top 70 to make the next round. So it is kind of a "must have" tourney for him. I am not a guy that backs players or teams in "must win" situations. If such a team or player had been good enough all season, they would not be in that position. Fowler is #16, but 5 of his 7 top tens have come the last 5 weeks. And he is an underdog to Stenson. A hot dog vs must win? I will take the dog or not bet in such situations.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 29, 2014 21:16:59 GMT -6
2nd round play, Keegan Bradley -140 v Gary Woodland, 2u
KB is inconsistent, but when he starts a tourney well, he tends to play well all weekend. When he is on, he is top 10. He had 6 birdies today for 6 under.
Woodland is in the top ten of variance. He had 5 birdies today and was even. His putter has only so many in it and he made a few today.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Aug 31, 2014 17:02:46 GMT -6
Got Keegan on the wrong day, I guess. Oh well. I have another one I'm eyeing for tomorrow once the matchup lines come out.
New Bet: Bears under 8.5 wins, +125, 3 units
The more I look at this Bears team, the more I see a defense with a lot of holes. And the team is so thin, if it has key injuries, as you expect all NFL teams to have, it could be 6-10. I see 6 wins more probable than 10 and 7 wins more likely than 9, so I will take the under 8.5 for plus money.
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Post by Hawg Ass on Aug 31, 2014 17:27:36 GMT -6
Got Keegan on the wrong day, I guess. Oh well. I have another one I'm eyeing for tomorrow once the matchup lines come out. New Bet: Bears under 8.5 wins, +125, 3 units The more I look at this Bears team, the more I see a defense with a lot of holes. And the team is so thin, if it has key injuries, as you expect all NFL teams to have, it could be 6-10. I see 6 wins more probable than 10 and 7 wins more likely than 9, so I will take the under 8.5 for plus money. I know it is not popular, but I agree. They are going to score some points, but that defense looks awful. |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 1, 2014 5:02:39 GMT -6
Golf, 4th round matchup
C. Schwartzel -110 v. Bubba Watson, 1 %
Sometimes when Bubba tees off early on a final round and is out of contention, he appears to not give a shit and plays faster than normal to seemingly hit the road asap. Maybe we get another mundane 2 over from Bubba today.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 2, 2014 10:29:44 GMT -6
Last week: Football 4-2, +1.8; Golf -2.66
Buffalo Bills +7, 2*
A new season and Bears fans have high hopes, but they likely won't last long. While the offense will be ok, assuming Cutler and Forte stay healthy, this might be the worst Bears defense in at least the last 15 years..and last year's was awful. If da Bear lose at home, which I think is quite possible, this might be the only game all year we get to take 7 against them.
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