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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 1, 2014 13:32:46 GMT -6
going to do a basic strategy teaser on the two 7 point NFL faves I like:
Philly -1, Denver -1, 1u
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 1, 2014 19:21:13 GMT -6
Memphis-Cincinnati under 64.5
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Oct 4, 2014 14:44:05 GMT -6
I felt a little risky this afternoon with the weather and apparent defensive struggle Stanford and Notre Dame . I locked in Stanford -2 earlier this week and after Stanford scored their touchdown locked in Notre Dame +4.5.
Having the opportunity for 3 and 4 to give me a winner was too enticing.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Oct 4, 2014 17:10:10 GMT -6
Dammit motherfucker. A 4th and 11 away from a middle. Ah gamblin
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 4, 2014 22:32:50 GMT -6
4-3 in college.
Adding Indianapolis Colts -3, -115.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 5, 2014 20:12:23 GMT -6
...just keep scratching out a profit.
Picks in this thread to date (6 weeks): +11.02 units
CFB +0.7, Golf +4.94, NFL +5.38
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Oct 5, 2014 20:25:26 GMT -6
I am kicking myself for not taking New England.
Fading Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton in "big" prime time games never fails.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 7, 2014 19:38:20 GMT -6
BYU +3.5
A few weeks ago, BYU was -17 vs. Houston, meaning the linesmaker made BYU 14 over Houston (power rating without home field). Last week, Houston was -1 vs. Central Florida, meaning the linesmakers made CF 2 over Houston (without home field). So the linesmakers, by these numbers, have made BYU 12 higher than Central Florida, meaning by those power ratings, this line should be BYU -9. Of course, the reason this line is not that is because BYU lost their star QB to injury during the last game, in which BYU lost to Utah State. So the last thing bettors saw was BYU looking like shit and their QB having trouble doing anything right. But, let's remember, that young QB hadn't had any significant reps since summer time and was thrust into a game without any kind of prep. He now has had a week of game prep. The BYU QB was good, but was he really worth 12.5 points to the line? That is the difference between the previous comparable power ratings and this line. Add to that the fact that Central Florida is mostly a running team and BYU is strong against the run. I think this is a classic case where people are betting on what they saw last and this line is way out of line. I really expect BYU to get hit before game time. How is it the big money guys in Vegas don't see what I see? I think they will and this game closes near pick em. I might be wrong about line moves, but one thing I'm pretty sure about -- the BYU QB wasn't worth 12.5 points to the line.
Clemson -10
I think I'm going to start riding them, as I did last week. Louisville is another team that I think is still living a bit off their rep.
Memphis -7 vs. Houston
I bought this at 7 Sunday night, it's now at 9, but I would buy it under 10. Memphis is another team I think I'm going to ride as I believe their performance vs. UCLA, Mississippi and last week's win vs. Cincy still are not reflected in the power ratings and lines. And Houston hasn't shown me squat.
Rice +1 vs. Army
Army is HORRIBLE against the pass. Rice throws it all over the lot. Mismatch of strength vs. weakness.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 7, 2014 21:27:31 GMT -6
TCU +10 vs. Baylor
Another I bought Sun night that has moved. This one now 8, but I would still buy it here. TCU off a big win vs. Okla showed me more than Baylor has. BU is talented for sure...just not this much.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 7, 2014 21:55:41 GMT -6
Houston Texans +3, -120
I have Indy 1 better than Hou on neutral, and you could make a case for 2. 3 would be a stretch...but this line says Indy is 6 better on neutral. I take value as I find it. And now I see this also is a KS fade!
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 7, 2014 22:00:08 GMT -6
Falcons -3 vs Bears, -125
I have Atlanta 1 higher than Chi. You could make a case for 2 with Atlanta at home and how efficient their offense is indoors. You could add another for the situational mismatch of the Atlanta receivers vs. the Bears secondary. But this line says these teams are even. Yes Atlanta has looked bad two weeks in a row, giving us value here. Bears are just the medicine. This is already 3.5 in some places, so if you like the beloved, wait for the 3.5.
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Post by November KS on Oct 7, 2014 22:16:59 GMT -6
I can tell you right now I'll be going Falcons on that one. regardless.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 7, 2014 22:24:54 GMT -6
yes sometimes we agree. i think you have a winning record when we agree  |
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Post by November KS on Oct 7, 2014 22:27:24 GMT -6
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 8, 2014 19:17:56 GMT -6
Finalizing my Saturday card
Army-Rice over 59
Northwestern -Minnesota over 43.5
UL Monroe +21.5 @ Kentucky
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 9, 2014 9:38:51 GMT -6
Iowa -3
Bettors have bet this down where Iowa is now playable for me. Do bettors like the flashy IU offense? Or maybe they do not like the bad QB play and uncertainty?? I prefer the Iowa defense with a week to prepare. The line now says these teams are even. Not me.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 10, 2014 17:58:27 GMT -6
Back to handicapping baseball playoffs..especially when my favorite team (SF) and my wife's (Orioles) are in it. We wil be in SF, same days as games 4&5 in two weeks. Now all we need is for the two teams to cooperate.
Orioles -113, 1 u.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 10, 2014 17:58:46 GMT -6
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2014 20:30:15 GMT -6
Hello friends. In Vegas. Hit two picks last night on my teams (I rarely bet on my teams).
I took colts -2.5 and the money line for Blackhawks. Also killed it on roulette. Very profitable weekend.
Coast, I hate to pick on one of my fave teams for a third time but that iowa -3 line I've seen looks like a great pick.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 10, 2014 22:08:35 GMT -6
Best Indiana team in years. They can run and pass. Won't be easy but I like the Hawks too.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 11, 2014 9:48:59 GMT -6
I mentioned to someone that I make a lot of plays and the only ones I post here are some of the ones I do on my own work. And others I don't post because the numbers I got are long gone and I wasn't able to post them in a timely way (certain plays I get from others I am asked not to post on the web until closer to game time). I get plays from a few guys in Vegas who are pros and bet very large amounts. You will see most of these lines have moved. So if you care, here is my total card today so far (I won't count any of these on my record on this site) Buffalo over 56 Miami Akron over 55 Syracuse +24 West Virginia - Tex Tech over 74 Kansas Ok State under 51 North Texas -UAB under 60 Marshall MTSU under 74 Georgia Southern under 68 Marshall -21 NC State - BC under 57 Memphis Houston under 49.5 Ark State - Ga State over 63 Duke GT over 60 Baylor under 66 Ball State pick Florida +1 several more coming later for tonight. And if KS plays any of these, obviously I won't fade him |
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Oct 11, 2014 10:20:34 GMT -6
LSU/FLA Under 47
UCLA ML
UL-Monroe +21.5
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 11, 2014 11:32:24 GMT -6
Kirkwood, The UL Monroe game started at 11 am. I thought I had checked at 11 and you hadn't posted this play. If I'm wrong, let me know.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Oct 11, 2014 13:53:50 GMT -6
Unfortunately, you'll find it on page 14 of BtB and in my real account. Golly, wha happened   |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 11, 2014 20:53:38 GMT -6
duh. I was scoring your plays in the wrong thread. my saturdays start at 4 am. apparently i was brain dead by 11 am.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Oct 11, 2014 21:20:13 GMT -6
At least I didn't chase my 0-fer  |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 12, 2014 8:34:56 GMT -6
4-5 in college that coulda woulda shoulda been better. BYU, CLemson, NW-Minn over. The stuff that happened in those games. All three should have cashed. It happens. We tend to remember the bad breaks rather than the good ones, but I could use some good ones to remember. |
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Oct 12, 2014 9:06:49 GMT -6
Dolphins all the way down to +1 after seeing them at 3 all week. This scares me that they'll still take the points after a key number.
Are my Packers screwed?
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 12, 2014 9:30:11 GMT -6
What often happens on sunday is that Billy Walters has all his boys lined up to strike and bet at exactly the same moment around the world and the mass flood of money at one moment causes books to move 1-1.5 points. Some of the other books that don't move right away move minutes later. There also are a lot of chasers. They see Billy moved the line 1.5 points and they pile on at bad numbers. It's likely not the sharps buying at +1.5 though, most likely chasers. Are the Packers screwed? Well it is a tough spot to bet them. But Billy and sharps lose plenty of times |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 12, 2014 10:03:48 GMT -6
Now the buy back is coming. packers money coming in and moved it from 1 back to 2....perhaps from some of the same guys who got Fins +3. That's what makes reading some of these big line moves so tough. You're not sure how much of the $ is a play on one side, how much is to set up the other side, or how much is to set up a two point or more middle.
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