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Post by November KS on Sept 14, 2014 10:59:52 GMT -6
Wear a tent instead 
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 14, 2014 11:28:38 GMT -6
Coast bringing out the tables! :laughy face:
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 14, 2014 18:13:23 GMT -6
just walked thru the lobby between my meetings and the hag fans were coming back in after the game. Way to go Chargers...you put a sock in their pieholes!!
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 14, 2014 22:50:48 GMT -6
Well I was afraid of the Packers game and rightly so.
During the week I had placed a silly parlay hedge of:
Dal ML +165
Den ML -800
NYJ +8
Phi ML +145
Seeing as I was un/fortunate to win the 1st three I'm hedging and taking the "profit" to lessen the loss of my Packers bet.
I also had a 3-team teaser of Dallas/Packers/Georgia Southern that hit.
Overall a losing weekend in what should have been a very profitable one. I regretted/dreaded making the Packers bet all week. A minor hit to the roll so onto the next week.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 15, 2014 16:30:28 GMT -6
Go 3-0 on my NFL sides and lose for the week. Not a good week for teasers, going 0-3 and -5.5 u on those. What did we learn? Not necessarily that 6 point basic strategy teasers are not a solid NFL bet. They are. But my reservations about the Niners should have resulted in me not playing that game. Now 4-0 on NFL sides for the year. Guess I better ride that hot hand. And I finally lost with Rickie on the links. Oh well, it was a good ride. And wth was that with Spieth shooting an 80 on Saturday.
Recap of this thread to date: Golf - 0.36; College FB -1.9; NFL -0.5.
Tonight, Indy -3, even 1u
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 15, 2014 20:32:22 GMT -6
Raiders +15
Maybe the Jaguars are considered worse than the Raiders by the public. I'm taking the more than two scores in points.
Some line movements I've noticed is Detroit shot up to -1.5 from a pick.
New Orleans opened 7.5 point favorites and quickly jumped to -9.5
Bills ticked up to -1.5 from a pick against Chargers.
I must've confused something as NO never were favored by just 7.5. My mistake. They opened between 9-9.5.
I think the Jets being favored by -1.5 is a wait 'em out game. I see the public hammering the Bears after taking the W out of Frisco. Issue is the Bears were very very lucky to get that win. I don't see them get 3 picks, a fumble recovery, 6 1sts from penalties and 16 penalties from the opponent in general again. That was awful a display from the Niners you can ask for. They are what the Niners were after their week 1 win over Dallas.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 17, 2014 21:51:45 GMT -6
There is not a lot I like this weekend. This card looks like it has serious bloodbath potential for bettors. This week and next are the kind of weeks in which we find out the things we thought were true the first few weeks are not true. And the fact I don't like much is probably a very good thing.
But having said that, there is one play i absolutely LOVE and am making my biggest bet all year. I am sure more than a few people will think I am crazy. That usually is a very good sign for me.
Iowa +7, 3***
It's possible this will be the only time I pound a play like this all year. Iowa could not possibly have looked any worse the first three weeks. 0-3 ATS and losing to Iowa Straight. Yes they have sucked, but not by this much. If this had been the first game of the season three weeks ago, Iowa would have been -2. Pick at most. But because Iowa has looked like shit and Pitt has beaten BC, which beat USC, media, fans and Joe Public alike think Pitt must be pretty good. Put the bad Iowa start and 3-0 Pitt together and the line moves 7-9 points.
I know Iowa doesn't have the aerial game they have had, but Pitt is banking on their great RB Connor...and I believe the yards won't be quite as easy to find this week as they have been. I also love Kirk Ferentz as a coach who turns things around just when you are ready to give up on his Hawkeyes. One guy I respect rated Iowa's offense, defense and special teams better than Pitt when the season started. I don't think he was wrong, Iowa just hasn't played to its ability yet. The total for this game is 47, indicating it is likely to be a grinder. i agree with that. I strongly believe Iowa takes this to the wire or wins outright. And when I have a 7 point dog who I think has a better than even chance of winning outright, I'm betting it accordingly.
I also believe that sharps had a hand in pushing this line up to 7...which is exactly what they want so they can come over the top hard on Iowa +7. I will be surprised if this line closes 7.
I may have a few more college plays, but still have work to do on some games.
In the NFL, I smile at the people who like the Chargers this week. It's a classic case of what we talked about last week -- don't believe the last thing you saw. I bet the Chargers last week at home vs. Seattle, but I wouldn't bet the Chargers this week in an early morning body clock start coming off the W vs. the SB champs. This is potentially a flat spot for Buffalo too, coming off that emotional win last week. But the sharps clearly like Buffalo and bet them up pretty quickly. Without taking the conflicting situations into consideration, I make the line Buffalo -2, so the line is right where it should be. It's a game with mixed situations, so I'm not betting it, but I believe the Bills situation is better than the Chargers' spot and the Bills get it done.
Oakland is also in an early morning body clock start, but I just cannot lay 14 with these Patriots, Oakland and Jax are 3-5 points below everybody else in the NFL. Kirkwood is so right that no way can you lay 14 with these Pats. Good luck Kirkwood.
I think there is one blowout on the NFL card though. Nawlins has started the season 0-2, get their home opener in a foul mood and get to play the Vikings who are all messed up emotionally with the crap going on there. Besides, Matt Cassell is absolutely incapable of matching scores with Drew Brees. Nawlins big.
New Orleans -10, 2**.
More later.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 17, 2014 23:27:08 GMT -6
a few more, all 1*
Thursday: K-State-Auburn over 65
Tough spot for Auburn. Wish I could still get 10. Shootout.
Alabama-Florida under 52.5
First real game for Bama's QB, but their D is still #1.
Cal +10 -120
I make Cal slightly better at all 3 phases. Going to ride them again as a DD dog. Hopefully my rating is better than the linesmakers'.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 18, 2014 5:50:42 GMT -6
There is not a lot I like this weekend. This card looks like it has serious bloodbath potential for bettors. This week and next are the kind of weeks in which we find out the things we thought were true the first few weeks are not true. And the fact I don't like much is probably a very good thing. I had the same thought going over the NFL lines. A few game I'm lukewarm but will not play. NY Giants -2.5 - Is Houston good? They've played Redskins and Raiders. Texans have become competent but are they good enough to go to NY and win? I say no. Washington +6.5 - Eagles got shredded by Trent Richardson & Ahmad Bradshaw. I think Redskins will have a ball control offense as they've seen both Eagles opponents fade in the 2nd half. Add the divisional game aspect and I'll take the points. NY Jets -2.5 - I'll say upfront the Bears have more talent. When you add the Bears' consecutive primetime road games, Jets stout run D, and Rex Ryan being a defensive genius I'll take the New Yorkers. This will be an ugly game so I'll take the home team. Nonetheless, I'll be sitting out this week gearing up for the next 2-3 weeks as the overreaction to 0 and 1 win teams give investors great opportunities to take the points. |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 18, 2014 5:58:16 GMT -6
One more limbo and I might be done.
The U -Cornholers under 58
Defenses better than offenses and not at all sold on either QB playing against them.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 18, 2014 8:20:40 GMT -6
My NFL leans --
Carolina over Pittsburgh
For all the expectations about Carolina regressing this year, haven't seen it yet. Steelers on the other hand look like their multi-year regression might be continuing. Line is 3.5 now, making it unplayable.
Cleveland over Baltimore
I will be on the Browns again this season as they show signs of a team that is improving. Just not in this spot without any value.
Arizona +3 over SF
Niners are a mess with injuries, penalties and turnovers. Was last week a one-game aberration or signs of something else. Guys on this board predicted a meltdown. I may play this one.
Denver +5 @ Seattle
I was all set to bet the Broncos in this SB rematch, until Seattle lost last week. Still I think Broncos are right side here.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 18, 2014 8:51:59 GMT -6
Full Disclosure: My 49ers meltdown prediction was 80% facts & observations and then 20% bitterness that Kap owns the Packers.  |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 22, 2014 10:40:27 GMT -6
Recap of this thread to date: Golf - 0.36; College FB -0.1; NFL +0.5
This Week: My single most favorite sporting event. The Ryder Cup. The national fervor and rooting for your team is like a college football game. One of my fondest memories of attending any sporting event was the 1995 Ryder Cup at Oak Hill in Rochester. After the Euros won, the Swedish babes were going nuts, running through the corporate tent area topless, waving their European flag, grabbing drinks from whomever and running around madly screaming and cheering. And because it was a private corporate area, there were no security people to stop them. So it went on quite a while. You don't see that at a football game.
Europeans -155 to win Ryder Cup outright for 3 units; 3-way betting (W-L-T) (tie loses). Or you can think of it as Euros -1/4 point, -155.
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Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2014 11:11:18 GMT -6
I grabbed Europe -120 back in February.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 23, 2014 10:40:35 GMT -6
I wil kick off the week with two 1 unit NFL home dogs, both with value by my numbers. Buying these now as I expect all to close lower and I don't want to be on the wrong side of key numbers:
Dallas +3 vs. New Orleans
Kansas City +3.5 vs. New England
I'm also taking a few points of value with Oakland +4.5 vs. Miami in London. Keep a watch out on the weather in England at the end of the week. That field is notorious for being a mud bowl when wet.
Also will likely play Philly at SF, but waiting to see if number moves to 6 or higher. No reason to buy it at 5/5.5.
Also likely will play GB.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 24, 2014 22:46:34 GMT -6
Laying pretty low in college this week again. One for Friday to start...
Fresno under 73
Two more in NFL
Green Bay -125 ML 2u
Indy-Tenn over 46 1u
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 25, 2014 18:55:54 GMT -6
Ryder Cup
Rickie Fowler leading US point scorer +500. 1 u
You had to figure I would be on Rickie again. Best US player last 3 months, top 5 in all the majors, totally into this (see his USA haircut). Rickie favored in opening match, Phil a dog,giving a little more value. I would bet Rickie to be leading scorer in the event at 12-1,but not sure he will play every round. Rory and Sergio surely will.
Passing the morning matches. Like Fowler/Walker, but don't want to lay that number.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 26, 2014 16:09:21 GMT -6
Little schoolboy ball tonight:
Playing Fresno -3.5 tonight along with the under 73 tonight. The side play is a number play...I make the line 12, so we'll see how far off I am. I was waiting all week to see if the number might drop to 3, but 3.5 is as close as it got.
Under now at 67, so I wouldn't recommend it at that number.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 26, 2014 16:16:44 GMT -6
Ryder Cup Fourball, tees off 1:30 am Saturday
Mahan-Furyk +100 vs. Donaldson & Westwood, 2u
Walker-Fowler +115 vs. Rory and Poulter, 1u
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 26, 2014 21:39:46 GMT -6
Nice start to the weekend with a double bubble on Fresneck and under. I made Fresno 12, bought it at 3.5, closed at 6, won by 11. If only all bets worked out so well.
Nothing else on the Saturday card worth advocating at current prices.
Don't know if anyone ever does this kind of stuff, but sometimes I'll play moneyline parlays on favorites in college foots and hoops. Points don't matter, just win baby:
2 unit ML Parlay to win 3 units: Iowa, Penn State, Rutgers, Kentucky, Louisville, Mississippi
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 27, 2014 15:30:19 GMT -6
Three 1u plays for the Sunday Ryder Cup Singles:
Patrick Reed +135 vs. Stenson
Keegan Bradley -105 vs. Donaldson
Jimmy Walker -110 vs. Westwood
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 28, 2014 4:13:24 GMT -6
Adding: Mahan +166 vs. Rose, 1u
Rose was unreal Saturday. But that is yesterday's news. Mahan is a match play ninja, having won the match play champ. twice. This would normally be around +125. I will take the overlay.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 28, 2014 5:21:47 GMT -6
Adding Eagles +4.5, 1u. Waited as long as I could. I think it closes lower.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 28, 2014 7:02:00 GMT -6
My only play this weekend was/will be LA Tech.
I have some leans but I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the Sunday and recover.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 28, 2014 18:24:57 GMT -6
Locked up Stanford -1 versus Notre Dame for 2 units. I think the Domers first experience with a real football team will be an experience.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 28, 2014 21:48:03 GMT -6
Nice week betting golf. Too bad there isn't match play more often.
Guess I found the one time in 100 when taking 4.5 instead of 5.5 hurt me.
Recap of picks to date (units), through Monday night: CFB -0.1, Golf +4.94, NFL +3.38
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 29, 2014 21:51:26 GMT -6
This weekend is a fun one in college football with some great matchups. Also see some good bets. I'm getting a few now because I expect them to move.
Clemson -14 vs. NC State. NC State hung with FSU for awhile because it seemed FSU was sleepwalking in its first road game, but once FSU woke up in the 2nd half, it was a different game. The NC State defense is a fraud and Clemson is just the team to expose them. And after NCS hung with FSU for awhile, I expect Clemson to be ready.
Toledo -5 @ Western Michigan
I normally don't lay points on the road, especially with mediocre teams, but this line stinks. This line opened at 10 and Western money has driven it down 5 points. I think it's a setup for bigger money coming on Toledo. Nonetheless, whether I'm right or wrong about that, I will take value as I find it. I make this line 14. Western is young. And really really bad.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 30, 2014 20:48:08 GMT -6
Purdue +10
Sometimes to win money in this business, you have to bottom fish. The Boilers are awful. They are the carp of the Big Ten...lying on the bottom, big ole fat and lazy fish (the American carp, not the flying Asian kind). But Illinois is right there with them. I said it when the Illini hired Beckman and I'll say it again. A Big Ten program -- or any major program -- deserves better than hiring a midmajor coach with a mediocre record for the head job. The track record (in football and basketball) of such Peter Principle midmajor hires is not good. Winning at the midmajor level is no evidence that one can do it at the major level. And when midmajor coaches with no big time track record are promoted to a big job -- their level of incompetence -- they often fail because they have no experience actually doing the job -- they never have actually recruited and coached the kind of top athletes they need to win in a major program. In this case, we have two such coaches. (Hoke at Michigan also fills the bill.) Three Peter Principle hires, three fails. The only difference between these two guys that I see in this game is that one of their teams is gettting 10 points. I will have zero interest in watching any of this hideous game with two horribly coached teams. But winning a bet on a horrible team pays just the same as winning a bet on a good team.
Rutgers -3
All they do is keep covering. And now they get a Michigan team that is a mess; no make that an athletic program (other than hoops) that is a mess. So with the students calling for the firing of the AD and the Coach, how exactly are the players of scUM going to get "up" and win one on the road. I don't think they will. The "quit" sign was flashing during the Minnesota game. I will probably bet against scUM until they show signs of life or Peter Principle hire Hoke is gone. Heck that could happen any day.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 1, 2014 10:59:46 GMT -6
Tulsa - Colo State under 63
Moneyline Parlay:
1 uniit pays 1.39u
[345] WISCONSIN -300
[379] BAYLOR -750
[382] OKLAHOMA STATE -750
[390] LOUISIANA TECH -475
[406] CLEMSON -650
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Post by Coast2Coast on Oct 1, 2014 13:26:08 GMT -6
Kurt Herbstreit says Hoke is a good coach. Talk about confusing activity with results! Hoke was 34-38 at Ball State and 13-12 at San Diego State prior to getting the scUM job. And with that mediocre midmajor record, he got the scUM job! With the players he inherited at scUM, he went 11-2 the first year and has gone 17-14 since. Maybe Kurt H can explain how that middling record equals "good coach."
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