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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 2, 2014 15:27:51 GMT -6
Michigan State +13 @oregon, 1*
Are we looking at another Big 10 humiliation on the west coast from a team with superior speed? Or are we looking at a strong defense and an experienced QB/offense keeping this game close? I see value in the number and like the matchup.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 2, 2014 16:10:31 GMT -6
An old friend released a bunch of plays this morning to his well-heeled clients and immediately moved lines. Damn, a few of them were perfect matches for my models. So not quite as much value as there was, but still plenty. Line value here, all three for 1 unit...
Northwestern -7 vs NIU
Maryland -12.5 v. South Florida
La Tech +14 @ ULL
I went against NU last week with a growing Cal team with a good QB. But this NIU team is a huge step down from last year's...much more than the 7 points or so difference in this line from what it would have been last year.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 3, 2014 21:28:21 GMT -6
Arizona-UTSA over 56, 1u
Texas Tech UTEP over 63.5, 2u
Golf tourney matchups: Rickie won again last week, so I'm still riding the streak.And I will fade the Stenson again.
Rickie Fowler +120 vs. Justin Rose, 2u
Sergio Garcia +105 vs. Henrik Stenson, 2u
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 7, 2014 14:22:39 GMT -6
Horrible week for college football, but golf was beautiful and the Bears are who we thought they were.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 7, 2014 17:50:07 GMT -6
Great day at the window this weekend.
Locked in Carolina/Tampa under 39.5 week or so ago so the Newton injury was music to my ears. Bet a little heavier than the standard unit on that on.
I have a ticket for SD +3 made this week at lower juice of -105.
Have a ticket for over 8 wins for the Fins at +130. Looks encouraging!
Have Seahawks finishing 1st at even odds in the division before the Ray McDonald stuff went down so that looks OK too.
The MSU ticket has been my only loss this week.
Otherwise two weekends of football and two weeks of gains. All you can ask for!
Would've won a few more NFL bets if I sprayed a little more but trying to be very selective and look for quality. I realize this is where lines are softest but week 1 is definitely anything-can-go week.
Up unit wise in college but loser record. Ample time to get better. Football is back!
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Post by November KS on Sept 7, 2014 19:10:55 GMT -6
I best not offer any advice in this thread.
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Post by Hawg Ass on Sept 7, 2014 19:25:49 GMT -6
I best not offer any advice in this thread. I would disagree, I am very positive he would LOVE it. |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 7, 2014 21:49:00 GMT -6
I best not offer any advice in this thread. Bring it Jimmy Connors! Your advice is not only welcoomed, but encouraged. |
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 8, 2014 7:21:02 GMT -6
KS, stick to what you're doing if you can. It'd be very profitable for the rest of us if you could sustain a 23% winning percentage.
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Post by PositivelyJackref on Sept 8, 2014 7:24:36 GMT -6
KS, stick to what you're doing if you can. It'd be very profitable for the rest of us if you could sustain a 23% winning percentage.  |
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Post by November KS on Sept 8, 2014 9:45:31 GMT -6
KS, stick to what you're doing if you can. It'd be very profitable for the rest of us if you could sustain a 23% winning percentage.  |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 8, 2014 15:04:41 GMT -6
Recap of this thread to date: 3 weeks of golf, +3.64; 2 weeks of college fb -2.7; and one week of nfl +2.0. Cap off this week with something I do sometimes on Monday nights, the ole 6 point teaser. Tonight it's dog over.
Giants +10.5/Over 39, 1 unit
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 9, 2014 18:10:15 GMT -6
I like SF and GB, but without optimal numbers showing yet, I am going to tease them at current #s
SF -1/GB -2 2u
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Post by Hawg Ass on Sept 9, 2014 19:50:32 GMT -6
Coast, may I ask have many tours you werw on before these pickes?
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 9, 2014 19:54:11 GMT -6
ha. i picked them this morning while sober, though I was thinking about them since yesterday.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 10, 2014 20:02:25 GMT -6
If you have been following my golf bets and matchup winners on Rickie Bobbie every week, you had to know I would back him this one last time.What a streak. This is at least the 3rd, maybe 4th time in last 8 weeks he has been a dog to Rose...and won every time. Also Spieth finished 2nd in this last year so a horse for the course play on him.
Tour Championship tourney matchups:
Rickie Fowler +110 vs. Justin Rose, 2u
Jordan Spieth +110 vs. Bill Haas, 2u
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Post by Hawg Ass on Sept 10, 2014 20:04:19 GMT -6
If you have been following my golf bets and matchup winners on Rickie Bobbie every week, you had to know I would back him this one last time.What a streak. This is at least the 3rd, maybe 4th time in last 8 weeks he has been a dog to Rose...and won every time. Also Spieth finished 2nd in this last year so a horse for the course play on him. Tour Championship tourney matchups: Rickie Fowler +110 vs. Justin Rose, 2u Jordan Spieth +110 vs. Bill Haas, 2u Spieth has been good lately but not great. He is a player the U.S. needs to really get going. |
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 10, 2014 20:32:46 GMT -6
One college football play for Thurs. Taking LaTech again +3.5 for 1u. Think they are still undervalued, but not as much as last week when they won by 28 as 14 pt dogs.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 10, 2014 21:16:23 GMT -6
schoolboy totals
La Tech -North Texas under 47
Miami U -Arky State under 53
Ole Piss -Louie Laff over 58
Northern Ill - Vegas over 55
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 10, 2014 21:20:46 GMT -6
Coast, I've never bet golf. So when you mention Fowler, do books have many options of pitting him against player x and x and x and you just find the one with the odds you love best?
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 10, 2014 21:50:32 GMT -6
Typically you get only one or two matchups per week per guy before the tourney. The book chooses the matchups. This week with only 30 guys in it, you have maybe 40 choices total, so not every player is matched up. This week all the major guys had two different matchups. The other choice for Fowler this week was +125 vs Sergio. I passed on that. For the 3rd and 4th rounds, you can bet one day matchups of the guys who are in each twosome or threesome.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 10, 2014 22:39:39 GMT -6
Many Bears fans are great examples of why most fans are not objective about their teams....they over-estimate their team's capabilities in normal/good times and under-estimate their teams after losses. I think the Bears are still over-rated by the linesmakers, but I don't love the Niners here. If Dallas doesn't commit those TOs in the first half, last week could have been very different. The Niners D has issues. So I am just teasing the Niners. Maybe the Bears can play them close enough that the fans will get all crazy optimistic again and we get more value against them next week. With both teams having offenses better than their Ds, over might have been a look, but most of the NFL card is skewed to the overs. Value seems to be with unders, which of course Joe Public doesn't play much.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 11, 2014 12:28:28 GMT -6
I agree 100% with your Niner/Bear analysis . Last week was a perfect storm of Niners appearing to look unstoppable and Bears looking awful. But taking a step back like you have done there were a few inexcusable turnovers by the Cowboys last week that essentially ended the game by the 1st quarter. Then you have the Bears themselves having 3 inexcusable turnovers.
What is unknown is whether 49ers let off the gas pedal on offense. I didn't watch the whole game since it appeared over by half.
That being said, the +3SF and -3CHI turnover ratio isn't a sustainable event. While I think the 49ers are much more talented and should win this game easily they are facing injuries in their secondary and a depleted lineback corps. The Bears offensive line injuries aren't as worrisome as De La Puente likely is better than Garza and Ola did an OK job in place of Slausson. The Jeffries injury is a concern though as WR #2 and WR #3 become extremely weak if he can't go or re-tweaks the hammy.
My theory is Trestman recognizes the talent deficiency against SF and doesn't want to turn the game into an up & down affair as the 49ers are more likely to create stops than the Bears. He needs to admit the error in calling 70/30 pass/run ratio. A ball control offense gameplan built around Forte and the play-action pass game is what the doctor ordered.
Plus as is always my fear with strong offenses, Chicago's offensive strength gives them the capability to (Andrew) Luck themselves into a backdoor cover. (Though, with San Francisco now favored by less than a touchdown this has become less worrisome.)
This may be a case of paralysis by analysis and I'm overanalyzing the game. At face value the 49ers should stomp the Bears. |
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 11, 2014 21:01:01 GMT -6
I took Baltimore -2.5.
I have Packers -7.5
I'm a little worried I didn't grab the best number. I wonder if it hits 7 right before kickoff?
Debating taking Dallas spread or even straight up.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 12, 2014 6:37:48 GMT -6
Anither way to think about this is there is a psychological angle to handicapping -- the recency effect. Many bettors (and media) over-react to the last thing they saw...and think that portends the future. Any time you hear somebody prognosticate a game based on what they saw last game, you can pretty much dismiss their thoughts. The long term trend and rating are much more relevant.
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Post by Kirkwoodref on Sept 12, 2014 7:13:00 GMT -6
I think the Dallas/Tennessee game is very similar to 49er/Bears that fits your described effect.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 13, 2014 23:22:29 GMT -6
3-2 on College Foots.
NFL Card:
Green Bay -2, SF -1 6 pt. Teaser, 2u
Detroit +9, SF -1, 6 pt. Teaser, 2 u
Cleveland +6, 1u
San Diego +5.5, 1u
Nawlins and Seattle are public darlings, always attracting a lot of $ from Joe Public, and both are, not surprisingly, over-priced this week as road chalk. I make both Nawlins and Seattle -3 so will take the overlay with the home pups. I was holding out for 7, but it does not appear those are going to show. More likely is that the boys in Vegas will hit these Sunday morning and they will close 4.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 14, 2014 10:30:29 GMT -6
Adding Buffalo -115 ML for 1u. -1/-110 ok too. I was waiting thinking Joe Public might like the Dolphins a bit more, but not going to happen. A lot of juice in Buffalo today and my reset of my lines on my two NFL models makes Buff -3 or -4.
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Post by Coast2Coast on Sept 14, 2014 10:54:03 GMT -6
As a Niners fan, I'm not a big fan of the Seahags. And I'm no fan of Pete the Cheat. Seeing the fat fucks from the Emerald City with their fat fuck Seahag jerseys gloating and yelling around the San Diego hotel this morning makes me have even more disdain for them. Love the city. Keep the fans. Message to women: If you are 40 pounds overweight, football jerseys don't help the look. Wear a tent instead.
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Post by PositivelyJackref on Sept 14, 2014 10:56:45 GMT -6
 Coast bringing the heat! I also have disdain for the SeaChucks Little Cheatey Petey
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